Markets Turn Cautious Again on Trade Stalemates; Euro Picking Up Momentum in Some Crosses
| Action Insight Daily 5-30-25 |
Markets Turn Cautious Again on Trade Stalemates; Euro Picking Up Momentum in Some Crosses |
Asian markets returned to a risk-off tone today, with investor sentiment once again weighed down by the lack of clarity on the US tariff front and the apparent stalling of key trade negotiations. The week’s earlier relief rally following the U.S. court ruling against President Trump’s sweeping reciprocal tariffs has faded, as the legal battle drags on and policy direction remains uncertain. The result is renewed market hesitancy, with equities pulling back and safe-haven flows nudging Yen higher. In currency markets, the tone is cautious and directionless, with almost all major pairs and crosses confined to last week's ranges. After a volatile stretch, there’s little momentum to drive breakouts. For the day, Yen is the strongest performer, supported by risk aversion, followed by the Dollar and Kiwi. On the weaker side, the Euro is underperforming, trailed by the Aussie and Sterling. Swiss Franc and Loonie are trading near the middle of the pack. Thursday’s session in the US captured this shifting mood well as stocks closed well off their intraday highs. That optimism was first driven by the US Court of International Trade’s ruling that struck down most of Trump’s global tariff orders. However, the relief was short-lived. The US Court of Appeals paused that ruling to consider the administration’s appeal, setting a new timeline for responses from both plaintiffs and the government in early June. The pause has restored uncertainty to a situation markets briefly hoped was resolved. Further dampening sentiment were remarks from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who confirmed that US-China trade talks are “a bit stalled.” He did, however, hold out the possibility of further engagement in the coming weeks, including a potential leader-level call. Still, Bessent acknowledged that the magnitude and complexity of the negotiations likely require direct involvement from both presidents, a signal that near-term breakthroughs remain unlikely.... |
EUR/AUD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7527; (P) 1.7591; (R1) 1.7709; More... EUR/AUD's break of 1.7628 resistance argues that fall from 1.8554 might have completed as a correction at 1.7245. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 1.8554 to 1.7245 at 1.7745. Firm break there will solidify this bullish case and target 61.8% retracement at 1.8054. On the downside, however, break of 1.7460 support will bring retest of 1.7245 instead. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
|---|
| 22:45 | NZD | Building Permits M/M Apr | -15.60% | 9.60% | 10.70% | | 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI Y/Y May | 3.40% | 3.50% | | 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y May | 3.60% | 3.50% | 3.40% | | 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI Core-Core Y/Y May | 2.10% | 2% | | 23:30 | JPY | Unemployment Rate Apr | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.50% | | 23:50 | JPY | Industrial Production M/M Apr P | -0.90% | -1.40% | 0.20% | | 23:50 | JPY | Retail Trade Y/Y Apr | 3.30% | 2.90% | 3.10% | | 01:30 | AUD | Retail Sales M/M Apr | -0.10% | 0.30% | 0.30% | | 01:30 | AUD | Private Sector Credit M/M Apr | 0.70% | 0.50% | 0.50% | | 01:30 | AUD | Building Permits M/M Apr | -5.70% | 3.10% | -8.80% | -7.10% | | 05:00 | JPY | Housing Starts Y/Y Apr | -26.60% | -18.30% | 39.10% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Retail Sales M/M Apr | 0.30% | -0.20% | | 07:00 | CHF | KOF Economic Barometer May | 98.3 | 97.1 | | 08:00 | EUR | Eurozone M3 Money Supply Y/Y Apr | 3.70% | 3.60% | | 12:00 | EUR | Germany CPI M/M May P | 0.10% | 0.40% | | 12:00 | EUR | Germany CPI Y/Y May P | 2.10% | 2.10% | | 12:30 | CAD | GDP M/M Mar | 0.20% | -0.20% | | 12:30 | USD | Personal Income M/M Apr | 0.30% | 0.50% | | 12:30 | USD | Personal Spending M/M Apr | 0.20% | 0.70% | | 12:30 | USD | PCE Price Index M/M Apr | 0.10% | 0% | | 12:30 | USD | PCE Price Index Y/Y Apr | 2.20% | 2.30% | | 12:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index M/M Apr | 0.10% | 0% | | 12:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index Y/Y Apr | 2.50% | 2.60% | | 12:30 | USD | Goods Trade Balance (USD) Apr P | -141.8B | -162.0B | | 12:30 | USD | Wholesale Inventories Apr P | 0.40% | 0.50% | | 13:45 | USD | Chicago PMI May | 45.1 | 44.6 | | 14:00 | USD | UoM Consumer Sentiment May F | 50.8 | 50.8 | | 14:00 | USD | UoM 1-year Inflation Expectations May F | 7.30% | 7.30% |
|
|
|
