Dollar and Loonie Soft Ahead of Carney-Trump Meeting
| Action Insight Daily Report 5-6-25 |
Dollar and Loonie Soft Ahead of Carney-Trump Meeting |
Dollar remains on the soft side today, although losses are so far limited. Currency market activity is subdued as traders remain cautious ahead of the upcoming FOMC rate decision. While no policy changes are expected from the Fed tomorrow, markets are watching closely for any forward guidance. Notably, expectations for a June rate cut have continued to fade, with implied probabilities falling below 30%, reflecting the resilience of recent economic data, particularly on jobs. However, the bigger driver of sentiment remains progress, or the lack thereof, on the trade front. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is scheduled to meet President Donald Trump in Washington on Tuesday — the first face-to-face since Carney’s April 28 election victory. Trade and security are set to top the agenda. Canada is expected to bring proposals linked to energy and critical minerals, hoping to secure relief from US tariffs. Still, Carney has emphasized that substance will take precedence over speed. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted on Monday that deals with some trading partners were “very close,” echoing Trump's remarks over the weekend. Yet no concrete agreements have been announced. A Bloomberg report suggested India is willing to offer zero tariffs on selected goods, but details remain sparse. Overall, market optimism over trade progress exists but is tempered by repeated delays and lack of formal announcements.... |
USD/CHF Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8200; (P) 0.8237; (R1) 0.8261; More…. USD/CHF is still bounded in range below 0.8333 and intraday bias stays neutral at this point. On the upside, above 0.8333 will resume the rebound from 0.8038. However, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 to 0.8038 at 0.8482. On the downside, below 0.8196 minor support will bring retest of 0.8038. Firm break there will resume larger down trend. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 01:30 | AUD | Building Permits M/M Mar | -8.80% | -1.70% | -0.30% | -0.20% | | 01:45 | CNY | Caixin Services PMI Apr | 50.7 | 51.7 | 51.9 | | 06:45 | EUR | France Industrial Output M/M Mar | 0.40% | 0.70% | | 07:50 | EUR | France Services PMI Apr F | 46.8 | 46.8 | | 07:55 | EUR | Germany Services PMI Apr F | 48.8 | 48.8 | | 08:00 | EUR | Eurozone Services PMI Apr F | 49.7 | 49.7 | | 08:30 | GBP | Services PMI Apr F | 48.9 | 48.9 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone PPI M/M Mar | -1.10% | 0.20% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone PPI Y/Y Mar | 2% | 3% | | 12:30 | CAD | Trade Balance (CAD) Mar | -1.7B | -1.5B | | 12:30 | USD | Trade Balance (USD) Mar | -124.7B | -122.7B | | 14:00 | CAD | Ivey PMI Apr | 51.2 | 51.3 |
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