Sterling in Focus as BoE Decision and US-UK Trade Deal Speculation Loom
| Action Insight Daily Report 5-8-25 |
Sterling in Focus as BoE Decision and US-UK Trade Deal Speculation Loom |
Trading in the forex markets remains subdued. Fed’s policy announcement overnight triggered minimal market reaction, as it delivered a widely expected hold at 4.25–4.50%. While Fed acknowledged that risks of both higher unemployment and higher inflation have increased, Chair Jerome Powell made it clear that rate cuts are not imminent. “It’s not a situation where we can be preemptive,” Powell emphasized, reinforcing Fed’s data-dependent stance amid ongoing uncertainty from US tariff policies and their impacts. As attention shifts away from Fed, focus turns squarely to the UK, where the BoE is expected to cut rates by 25 bps. Beyond the cut itself, traders will be parsing the vote split and updated economic projections for signals on the pace of future easing. Adding a geopolitical dimension to the day’s event risk, there are growing market whispers that a US-UK trade deal will be announced. US President Donald Trump hinted in social media at a "MAJOR TRADE DEAL" to be announced today. While no country was named, sources cited by The Guardian said the deal involves the UK. If formalized, it would be the first bilateral agreement by the current US administration since its sweeping tariff actions last month. A deal with Britain is seen as relatively straightforward, especially compared to more contentious and prolonged negotiations expected with the EU and China. For markets, such a development could inject fresh direction into an otherwise stagnant environment.... |
GBP/USD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3254; (P) 1.3318; (R1) 1.3357; More... Range trading continues in GBP/USD and intraday bias remains neutral at this point. On the downside, firm break of 1.3232 support will indicate short term topping and rejection by 1.3433 key resistance. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for deeper pullback to 55 D EMA (now at 1.3051) and possibly below. On the upside, decisive break of 1.3433 key resistance will confirm larger up trend resumption. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:01 | GBP | RICS Housing Price Balance Apr | -3% | -4% | 2% | | 23:50 | JPY | BoJ Minutes | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Industrial Production M/M Feb | 3.00% | 0.80% | -1.30% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Trade Balance (EUR) Mar | 21.1B | 18.8B | 17.7B | | 11:00 | GBP | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 4.25% | 4.50% | | 11:00 | GBP | MPC Official Bank Rate Votes | 0--9--0 | 0--1--8 | | 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (May 2) | 235K | 241K | | 12:30 | USD | Nonfarm Productivity Q1 P | -0.40% | 1.50% | | 12:30 | USD | Unit Labor Costs Q1 P | 5.30% | 2.20% | | 14:00 | USD | Wholesale Inventories Mar F | 0.50% | 0.50% | | 14:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 103B | 107B |
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