Dollar Mixed Ahead of ADP and ISM, Euro Eyes CPI
| Action Insight Daily Report 5-31-23 |
Dollar Mixed Ahead of ADP and ISM, Euro Eyes CPI |
Dollar turned mixed in Asian session as traders are awaiting fresh inspirations from economic data and comments from Fed officials. The FOMC is clearly split in way with some policymakers advocating a "hold" in June. Nevertheless, they're unified in another way that even a "hold" doesn't necessarily means a "pause", not to mention a "peak". The greenback, in any case, will look into today's ADP employment and ISM manufacturing, as well as tomorrow's non-farm payroll data for more guidance. Australian Dollar is recovering mildly, with help from China's manufacturing data, but upside is limited. Yen is turning softer again after this week's rebound is losing momentum. Sterling is holding on to gains against Euro and Swiss Franc, as well as Dollar. Meanwhile, Canadian Dollar is sluggish together with New Zealand Dollar. Technically, Euro is clearly weaker this week after downside surprising in France and Germany inflation data. Yet, EUR/CHF is still working hard to form a bottom and focuses will be on 0.9760 minor resistance today. Firm break there should confirm short term bottoming at 0.9670 and bring stronger rebound back to 0.9797/9878 resistance zone. The next move will depend on markets' reaction to today's Eurozone CPI data. In Asia, Nikkei closed up 0.84%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.54%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.28%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.12%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0081 at 0.425. Overnight, DOW dropped -0.41%. S&P 500 dropped -0.61%. NASDAQ dropped -0.63%. 10-year yield dropped -0.063 to 3.637. |
USD/CAD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3545; (P) 1.3599; (R1) 1.3629; More.... USD/CAD is staying in range below 1.3653 and intraday bias remains neutral. Price actions from 1.3976 are seen as a triangle consolidation pattern. Above 1.3666 will target 1.3860 resistance first. Firm break of 1.3860 will argue that larger up trend is ready to resume through 1.3976 high. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:50 | JPY | Capital Spending Q1 | 11.00% | 5.50% | 7.70% | | 00:30 | JPY | Manufacturing PMI May F | 50.6 | 50.8 | 50.8 | | 01:30 | AUD | Private Capital Expenditure Q1 | 2.40% | 1.10% | 2.20% | 3.00% | | 01:45 | CNY | Caixin Manufacturing PMI May | 50.9 | 49.5 | | 06:00 | CHF | Trade Balance (CHF) Apr | 2.6B | 3.73B | 4.53B | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Retail Sales M/M Apr | 0.80% | 0.90% | -2.40% | -2.20% | | 07:30 | CHF | Manufacturing PMI May | 44.5 | 45.3 | | 07:45 | EUR | Italy Manufacturing PMI May | 45.8 | 46.8 | | 07:50 | EUR | France Manufacturing PMI May F | 46.1 | 46.1 | | 07:55 | EUR | Germany Manufacturing PMI May F | 42.9 | 42.9 | | 08:00 | EUR | Eurozone Manufacturing PMI May F | 44.6 | 44.6 | | 08:30 | GBP | Manufacturing PMI May F | 46.9 | 46.9 | | 08:30 | GBP | Mortgage Approvals Apr | 54K | 52K | | 08:30 | GBP | M4 Money Supply M/M Apr | -0.20% | -0.60% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Unemployment Rate Apr | 6.50% | 6.50% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Y/Y May P | 6.30% | 7.00% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Core May P | 5.50% | 5.60% | | 11:30 | EUR | ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts | | 11:30 | USD | Challenger Job Cuts May | 175.90% | | 12:15 | USD | ADP Employment Change May | 167K | 296K | | 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (May 26) | 236K | 229K | | 12:30 | USD | Nonfarm Productivity Q1 | -2.70% | -2.70% | | 12:30 | USD | Unit Labor Costs Q1 | 6.30% | 6.30% | | 13:30 | CAD | Manufacturing PMI May | 50.2 | | 13:45 | USD | Manufacturing PMI May F | 48.5 | 48.5 | | 14:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI May | 47 | 47.1 | | 14:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid May | 52.5 | 53.2 | | 14:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing Employment Index May | 50.2 | | 14:00 | USD | Construction Spending M/M Apr | 0.10% | 0.30% | | 14:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 106B | 96B | | 15:00 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -1.4M | -12.5M |
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