Yen Recovers Slightly After BoJ Hold; Trade Diplomacy Mixed Across G7
| Action Insight Daily 6-17-25 |
Yen Recovers Slightly After BoJ Hold; Trade Diplomacy Mixed Across G7 |
Yen recovered modestly after BoJ held interest rates steady at 0.50%, in line with expectations. The decision came with no change to the existing bond taper plan, but with a new framework to gradually reduce bond purchases starting in fiscal 2026. Markets interpreted the move as largely symbolic for now, since implementation begins next year. Overall, reaction was subdued, with most major currencies trading within last week’s ranges. BoJ’s decision to phase in bond tapering follows a spike in yields on super-long Japanese government bonds last month, which has increased fiscal strain. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato warned that sustained high rates could worsen Japan’s fiscal health. BoJ Governor Ueda acknowledged waning demand for long-dated bonds and noted that yield volatility in those maturities risks bleeding into shorter-term rates with broader economic consequences. Still, Yen's rebound was limited as the market continues to price in a long period of policy inertia. Underlying inflation remains sluggish and economic growth is projected to moderate in the near term. With medium-term inflation expected to rise only gradually, the BoJ is sticking to a cautious path while monitoring global developments—especially on the trade front.... |
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 195.58; (P) 196.13; (R1) 197.14; More... GBP/JPY retreated mildly after edging higher to 196.83. Yet, the breach of 196.42 resistance argues that rise recent rally is resuming. Intraday bias is mildly on the upside for 199.79 resistance first. Firm break there will target 100% projection of 180.00 to 199.79 from 184.35 at 204.14. For now, outlook will stay cautiously bullish as long as 193.75 support holds, in case of retreat. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 03:30 | JPY | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.50% | | 06:30 | JPY | BoJ Press Conference | | 09:00 | EUR | Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Jun | 34.5 | 25.2 | | 09:00 | EUR | Germany ZEW Current Situation Jun | -78 | -82 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Jun | 23.5 | 11.6 | | 12:30 | USD | Retail Sales M/M May | -0.60% | 0.10% | | 12:30 | USD | Retail Sales ex Autos M/M May | 0.20% | 0.10% | | 12:30 | USD | Import Price Index M/M May | -0.20% | 0.10% | | 13:15 | USD | Industrial Production M/M May | 0.10% | 0.00% | | 13:15 | USD | Capacity Utilization May | 77.70% | 77.70% | | 14:00 | USD | Business Inventories Apr | 0.00% | 0.10% | | 14:00 | USD | NAHB Housing Market Index Jun | 35 | 34 |
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