Japan's Inaction and Refrained Rhetoric Lead to Speculation on New Intervention Threshold
| Action Insight Daily Report 6-24-24 |
Japan's Inaction and Refrained Rhetoric Lead to Speculation on New Intervention Threshold |
Yen recovered mildly in quiet Asian session along with the Swiss Franc, driven by mild risk aversion in the region. Despite this uptick, there is no strong indication of a significant rebound for the Japanese currency following its sharp decline last week. Notably, Japan did not utilize the thin liquidity at the beginning of the week to intervene in the currency markets. While some traders remain vigilant for possible intervention should USD/JPY surpass 160 level, we believe that the intervention threshold may have already been adjusted higher. Japan's verbal intervention has been relatively restrained too. Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki warned against excessive speculative movements in the current market, pledging to respond appropriately if necessary. However, stronger language, such as monitoring the markets with a "high sense of urgency," was notably absent. Meanwhile, top currency diplomat Masato Kanda only reiterated that "we are always ready to take appropriate action when there are excessive moves," and emphasized that Japan is prepared to intervene 24 hours a day if needed... |
USD/JPY Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 159.02; (P) 159.44; (R1) 160.22; More... Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains on the upside for the moment. Current rally should target 160.20 high, or possibly to 100% projection of 151.86 to 157.70 from 154.53 at 160.37. Upside could be limited there, at least on first attempt. On the downside, below 158.24 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. However, decisive break of 160.37 will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 163.97. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 22:45 | NZD | Trade Balance (NZD) May | 204M | 155M | 91M | -3M | | 23:50 | JPY | BoJ Summary of Opinions | | 08:00 | EUR | Germany IFO Business Climate Jun | 89.7 | 89.3 | | 08:00 | EUR | Germany IFO Current Assessment Jun | 88.4 | 88.3 | | 08:00 | EUR | Germany IFO Expectations Jun | 91 | 90.4 |
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