Risk Appetite Holds, Dollar Extends Losses Markets Eye PCE into Friday’s Finish

Action Insight Daily 6-27-25

Risk Appetite Holds, Dollar Extends Losses Markets Eye PCE into Friday’s Finish

Global risk sentiment remains firm heading into the weekend, with both S&P 500 and NASDAQ pushing near record highs overnight. Asian markets followed suit, with Japan’s Nikkei breaking above the symbolic 40k mark, extending its robust rally driven by AI optimism and strong corporate earnings.

The bullish tone persists despite persistent warnings from Fed officials that a July rate cut is unlikely. Instead, Fed’s consistent message of "not now, but likely later" is reinforcing market hopes that easing will resume by fall. Most policymakers continue to emphasize patience due to tariff-related inflation risks, yet concede that inflation appears to be trending back toward target. This dovish tilt later in the year is offering enough support for equity bulls to stay in control.

Traders are now squarely focused on May’s US PCE inflation release. A modest rise is expected, with headline PCE set to climb to 2.3% and core PCE to 2.6%. A soft reading would further cement the case for September easing, while any significant surprise to the upside could temporarily dampen sentiment. For now, though, investors appear optimistic that inflation remains manageable.......

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AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6511; (P) 0.6538; (R1) 0.6572; More...

AUD/USD's rise from 0.5913 finally resumed by breaking 0.6551 resistance. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 0.6713 fibonacci level. On the downside, below 0.6483 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. But near term outlook will now stay bullish as long as 0.6372 support holds, in case of retreat.

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Y/Y Jun 3.10% 3.40%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Jun 3.10% 3.40% 3.60%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core-Core Y/Y Jun 3.10% 3.30%
23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate May 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y May 2.20% 2.40% 3.30% 3.50%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator Jun 95.5 94.8
09:00 EUR Eurozone Services Sentiment Jun 1.6 1.5
09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Jun -9.9 -10.3
09:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Jun F -15.3 -15.3
12:30 CAD GDP M/M Apr 0.00% 0.10%
12:30 USD Personal Income M/M May 0.20% 0.80%
12:30 USD Personal Spending May 0.20% 0.20%
12:30 USD PCE Price Index M/M May 0.10% 0.10%
12:30 USD PCE Price Index Y/Y May 2.30% 2.10%
12:30 USD Core PCE Price Index M/M May 0.10% 0.10%
12:30 USD Core PCE Price Index Y/Y May 2.60% 2.50%
14:00 USD UoM Consumer Sentiment Jun F 60.5 60.5
14:00 USD UoM 1-year Inflation Expectations Jun F 5.10% 5.10%