Post-BoC Selloff Short-Lived for Canadian Dollar, Euro Eyes Upcoming ECB Meeting
| Action Insight Daily Report 6-6-24 |
Post-BoC Selloff Short-Lived for Canadian Dollar, Euro Eyes Upcoming ECB Meeting |
Canadian Dollar remains the weakest performer for the week at this point. Yet, losses is so far contained, with the recovery after the brief selloff following BoC's rate cut overnight. While further cuts are anticipated within the year, the likelihood of another immediate adjustment in July is currently seen as unlikely , with market odds at about 40% only. Instead, analysts now predict possibly only two more rate reductions, one each in Q3 and Q4. Attention is now shifting to ECB's anticipated rate cut today. The main question is whether ECB will hint at additional easing measures for the remainder of the year, particularly through its upcoming economic projections. Euro has displayed mixed performance so far this week but could potentially strengthen if ECB's stance is perceived as less dovish than expected... |
USD/CAD Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3659; (P) 1.3700; (R1) 1.3736; Moreâ¦. USD/CAD is still stuck in range after failing to break through 1.3742 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment and outlook is unchanged. On the upside, break of 1.3742 resistance will revive the case that correction from 1.3845 has completed at 1.3589. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for retesting 1.3845. On the downside, firm break of 1.3589 support will argue that whole rise from 1.3176 has completed at 1.3845 already. Fall from 1.3845 should then resume to 61.8% retracement of 1.3176 to 1.3845 at 1.3432. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 01:30 | AUD | Trade Balance (AUD) May | 6.55B | 5.50B | 5.02B | 4.84B | | 05:45 | CHF | Unemployment Rate May | 2.40% | 2.30% | 2.30% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Factory Orders M/M Apr | 0.50% | -0.40% | | 08:00 | EUR | Italy Retail Sales M/M Apr | 0.30% | 0.00% | | 08:30 | GBP | Construction PMI May | 52.5 | 53 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Apr | 0.20% | 0.80% | | 12:15 | EUR | ECB Rate On Deposit Facility | 3.75% | 4.00% | | 12:15 | EUR | ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate | 4.25% | 4.50% | | 12:30 | USD | Trade Balance (USD) Apr | -69.8B | -69.4B | | 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (May 31) | 215K | 219K | | 12:30 | USD | Nonfarm Productivity Q1 | 0.30% | 0.30% | | 12:30 | USD | Unit Labor Costs Q1 | 4.70% | 4.70% | | 12:30 | CAD | Trade Balance (CAD) Apr | -2.2B | -2.3B | | 12:45 | EUR | ECB Press Conference | | 14:00 | CAD | Ivey PMI May | 65.2 | 63 | | 14:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 89B | 84B |
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