Action Insight Daily Report 7-3-25

Dollar Selloff Stalls Before NFP Test: Calm Before the Shock?

Dollar is pausing its recent slide as markets brace for today’s Non-Farm Payrolls report, but its recovery remains shallow. Barring its gains against the troubled British Pound, the greenback remains broadly weaker against major currencies for the week. Traders are increasingly wary of a downside surprise in the jobs report, which could revive speculation that the Fed may cave to growing political pressure and deliver a rate cut as early as this month. Market sentiment could shift quickly if labor market cracks deepen.

Such a shift could further weigh on Dollar, already dragged by rising fiscal concerns and mixed signals on trade. President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam that includes a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods and a steep 40% “transshipping” tariff. In a separate move signaling goodwill, the US government lifted export restrictions on chip-design software to China. However, broader trade negotiations with major economies remain stalled, and the July 9 self-imposed tariff truce deadline still looms with little indication of delay or progress.

Across the Atlantic, the British Pound is reeling. Turmoil within the Labour government sparked fresh selling yesterday, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ position suddenly appearing shaky after Prime Minister Keir Starmer failed to offer a clear endorsement. Reeves has been the face of fiscal responsibility, and markets fear that her possible replacement by a more dovish figure—like cabinet minister Pat McFadden—could signal a shift toward more borrowing. Gilt yields have surged in response, and Sterling continues to lead the weekly losses among major currencies.

Swiss Franc and Euro are outperforming this week, both capitalizing on the floundering Pound. Yen and Loonie are relatively directionless, while the Aussie and Kiwi are struggling to gain traction....

Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7902; (P) 0.7921; (R1) 0.7941; More….

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen above 0.7871 temporary low. Upside of recovery should be limited by 0.8054 support turned resistance to bring another fall. Below 0.7871 will extend the larger down trend to 61.8% projection of 0.9200 to 0.8038 from 0.8475 at 0.7757. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 0.7313 next.

EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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