RBA Surprise Hold Lifts Aussie, as Trump Tariff Threat Hits 14 Countries

Action Insight Daily 7-8-25

RBA Surprise Hold Lifts Aussie, as Trump Tariff Threat Hits 14 Countries

Aussie rallied sharply on Tuesday after RBA unexpectedly held its cash rate steady at 3.85%, defying widespread expectations for a 25bps cut. While a majority of economists had penciled in an easing move, the 6-3 vote revealed deep divisions within the Board. It's unclear whether RBA’s decision was influenced at the last minute by escalating global trade risks. The US has begun sending formal letters to key trade partners with new tariff schedules, creating significant uncertainty for export-dependent economies like Australia. Yet, broader Asian markets appeared relatively calm. Equity indexes across the region posted modest gains

On the trade front, US President Donald Trump confirmed that 14 countries will face new blanket tariffs starting August 1. Signed letters detailed levies ranging from 25% to 40%. Trump’s executive order also pushed back the original July 9 deadline by three weeks, offering a narrow window for countries to negotiate bilateral deals.

The list of countries receiving tariff notices is sweeping and includes several key US trading partners: Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Laos, Myanmar, Tunisia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Serbia, Cambodia, and Thailand. The rates vary—25% for Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, and Tunisia; 30% for South Africa and Bosnia; 32% for Indonesia; 35% for Bangladesh and Serbia; 36% for Cambodia and Thailand; and 40% for Laos and Myanmar. The letters also warned that goods rerouted through third countries to evade tariffs would be penalized......

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AUD/USD Daily Report

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6463; (P) 0.6513; (R1) 0.6541; More...

AUD/USD rebounded notably today but stays below 0.6589 resistance. Intraday bias stays neutral and more consolidations could still be seen. Overall, further rally is still expected as long as 0.6372 support holds. On the upside, firm break of 0.6589 will resume the rise from 0.5913 and target 0.6713 fibonacci level.

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23:50 JPY Current Account (JPY) May 2.82T 2.58T 2.31T
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