 Dollar is leading the major currencies this week as investors digest an escalating trade war campaign from Washington. While steep tariffs typically raise concerns about disruption to global supply chains and demand, the Trump administration is clearly framing tariffs as a tool not only for reshoring production but also for offsetting revenue losses from recent tax cuts. That has introduced another dimensions to market interpretation, including the prospect of higher fiscal receipts even amid slower global growth. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday that the US has already collected USD 100B in tariff revenue this year and is on track for USD 300B by end-2025. That revenue projection has changed the narrative for some, who now view tariffs not just as inflationary trade barriers but also as sources of budget support. The broader economic impact remains uncertain—likely a mix of stagflationary forces—which helps explain why most Fed officials are still signaling caution over the pace and scale of monetary easing. Markets will turn to FOMC minutes from June’s meeting for clarity. While the minutes are unlikely to shift the firm market consensus that the Fed will hold rates steady this month, they may shed light on the internal division within the Committee—especially whether dovish shifts from Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman were already emerging at that stage. For now, futures pricing continues to favor a cut in September, but confidence in additional moves this year has softened...... | 
