Risk Aversion Continues as Markets Await UK and US Retail Sales
Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-14-19

Risk Aversion Continues as Markets Await UK and US Retail Sales

Risk aversion stays in Asia after the -3% crash in Dow overnight. More importantly, treasury yields took another dive on recession fears. US 30-year yield even drops through 2% handle in Asia and hit as low as 1.964. In the currency markets, though, Australian Dollar rises generally after better than expected job data. New Zealand and Canadian Dollar shrug risk aversion and recover generally. At this time of writing, Sterling and Dollar are among the weakest for today, awaiting important data ahead.

Technically, 1.1133 minor support in EUR/USD is a key focus today. Firm break there should indicate completion of rebound from 1.1026 and larger down trend might be resuming. Ideally, that should be accompanied by firm break of 1.0841 in EUR/CHF to confirm over weakness in Euro. Yen crosses will also be eyeing recent lows, in particular 105.04 in USD/JPY, 117.51 in EUR/JPY and 126.54 in GBP/JPY.

In Asia, currently, Nikkei is down -1.46%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.17%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.62%. Singapore Strait Times is down -1.49%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.0183 at -0.238. Overnight, DOWN dropped -3.05%. S&P 500 dropped -2.93%. NASDAQ dropped -3.02%. 10-year yield dropped -0.099 to 1.488.

Full Report Here

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AUD/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6720; (P) 0.6764; (R1) 0.6793; More...

AUD/USD is staying in consolidation from 0.6677 and intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 0.6822 will extend the rebound. But upside should be limited below 0.6910 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.6677 will target 100% projections of 0.7295 to 0.6831 from 0.7082 at 0.6618.

Full Report Here

EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
1:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation Aug 3.50% 3.20%
1:30 AUD Employment Change Jul 41.1K 14.2K 0.5K
1:30 AUD Unemployment Rate Jul 5.20% 5.20% 5.20%
4:30 JPY Industrial Production M/M Jun F -3.30% -3.60% -3.60%
6:30 CHF Producer & Import Prices M/M Jul -0.20% -0.50%
6:30 CHF Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Jul -1.70% -1.40%
8:30 GBP Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel M/M Jul -0.20% 1.00%
8:30 GBP Retail Sales Inc Auto Fuel Y/Y Jul 2.50% 3.80%
8:30 GBP Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel M/M Jul -0.20% 0.90%
8:30 GBP Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel Y/Y Jul 2.30% 3.60%
12:30 CAD ADP Employment July 30.4K
12:30 USD Nonfarm Productivity Q2 P 1.40% 3.40%
12:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q2 P 1.80% -1.60%
12:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Aug 1.9 4.3
12:30 USD Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Aug 10 21.8
12:30 USD Retail Sales Advance M/M Jul 0.30% 0.40%
12:30 USD Retail Sales Ex Auto M/M Jul 0.40% 0.40%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (AUG 10) 212K 209K
13:15 USD Industrial Production M/M Jul 0.10% 0.00%
13:15 USD Capacity Utilization Jul 77.80% 77.90%
14:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Aug 66 65
14:00 USD Business Inventories Jun 0.10% 0.30%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 55B
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