Mild Risk-Off Sentiment, Dollar Dominates With Some Hesitation
| Action Insight Daily Report 9-7-23 |
Mild Risk-Off Sentiment, Dollar Dominates With Some Hesitation |
Asian markets showcased a mild risk-off tone today, in the wake of lower closes in US markets overnight. However, the forex arena remains comparatively tranquil with major currency pairs and crosses largely confined within the previous day's trading range. Lingering apprehensions regarding a potential rate hike by the Fed have resurfaced following robust US services data. Yet, the odds of a subsequent rate increase in either November or December—assuming a pause this month—continue to oscillate around the 50% mark. This ambiguity is poised to persist unless the new economic projections by Fed provide a more definitive direction. For the week, Dollar stands tall as the dominant currency. Nonetheless, there's a perceptible hesitation among buyers, suggesting a reluctance to propel the greenback any higher from its current position. Canadian Dollar trails closely as the second strongest, with Euro coming in third. On the flip side, Australian Dollar languishes at the bottom, feeling the pressure by lackluster Chinese trade figures. New Zealand Dollar and Yen aren't faring much better, positioned as the second and third weakest currencies respectively. Meanwhile, Sterling and Swiss Franc are presenting a mixed performance. Technically, Copper's rebound from 3.6349 was admittedly stronger than expected. But the rejection by 61.8% retracement of 4.0145 to 3.3649 and the structure still argues that it's a corrective move. Break of 3.7320 support will indicate that fall from 4.015 is ready to resume through 3.6349. If realized, AUD/USD might follow and have enough momentum to move away from 0.6363 support finally. In Asia, Nikkei closed down -0.73%. Hong Kong HSI is down -1.24%. China Shanghai SSE is down -1.06%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.22%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0042 at 0.660. Overnight, DOW dropped -0.57%. S&P 500 dropped -0.70%. NASDAQ dropped -1.06%. 10-year yield rose 0.022 to 4.290. |
AUD/USD Daily Report Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6358; (P) 0.6382; (R1) 0.6405; More... Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays mildly on the downside for the moment. Current decline is part of the whole fall from 0.7156, next target is 100% projection of 0.7156 to 0.6457 from 0.6894 at 0.6195. On the upside, break of 0.6520 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside in case of recovery. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 22:45 | NZD | Manufacturing Sales Q2 | 0.20% | -2.80% | -2.50% | | 01:30 | AUD | Trade Balance (AUD) Jul | 8.04B | 10.05B | 11.32B | 10.27B | | 03:00 | CNY | Trade Balance (USD) Aug | 68.4B | 68.0B | 80.6B | | 03:00 | CNY | Trade Balance (CNY) Aug | 488B | 494B | 576B | | 05:00 | JPY | Leading Economic Index Jul P | 107.6 | 107.9 | 109.1 | | 05:45 | CHF | Unemployment Rate Aug | 2.10% | 2.10% | 2.10% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Industrial Production M/M Jul | -0.80% | -0.40% | -1.50% | | 06:45 | EUR | France Trade Balance (EUR) Jul | -6.8B | -6.7B | | 07:00 | CHF | Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) Aug | 698B | | 08:00 | EUR | Italy Retail Sales M/M Jul | 0.20% | -0.20% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q2 | 0.30% | 0.30% | | 12:30 | CAD | Building Permits M/M Jul | 7.50% | 6.10% | | 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 1) | 235K | 228K | | 12:30 | USD | Nonfarm Productivity Q2 | 3.50% | 3.70% | | 12:30 | USD | Unit Labor Costs Q2 | 1.80% | 1.60% | | 14:00 | CAD | Ivey PMI Aug | 49.2 | 48.6 | | 14:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 38B | 32B | | 15:00 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -1.8M | -10.6M |
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