Loonie Weakness Persists in Calmer Markets, AUD/CAD Challenges Key Resistance
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 1-21-25 |
Loonie Weakness Persists in Calmer Markets, AUD/CAD Challenges Key Resistance |
Forex markets have settled into quieter trading as the immediate impact of US President Donald Trump’s inauguration and initial executive orders fades. While Trump’s proposed tariffs remain a significant concern, their delayed implementation suggests a more calculated and strategic approach, tied to future negotiations. This tempered stance has brought a sense of cautious optimism to the markets, as the eventual impact may not be as severe as initially feared—especially if major agreements are reached with key allies like the EU. Despite this relative calm, Canadian Dollar remains under significant pressure. As the most immediate target of Trump’s tariff agenda, with measures likely set to take effect on February 1. Loonie's recovery struggled to gain traction. This weakness has been compounded by softer-than-expected Canadian CPI data for December. While energy prices saw a boost due to base effects, other areas of the economy, such as food and restaurant pricing, contributed to the overall deceleration in inflation. With inflation hovering near the 2% target, BoC is expected to continue easing monetary policy, albeit at a slower pace. So far this week, Dollar has been the weakest performer, followed by Loonie and Yen. On the other side of the spectrum, Kiwi leads the gainers, followed by Euro and Sterling. Swiss Franc and Australian Dollar are positioned more neutrally, sitting in the middle of the performance table.... |
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2211; (P) 1.2278; (R1) 1.2395; More... Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains neutral for the moment. Consolidations from 1.2099 could extend with stronger recovery But outlook will remain bearish as long as 12486 support turned resistance holds. On the downside, break of 1.2099 will resume the fall from 1.3433 to 100% projection of 1.3433 to 1.2486 from 1.2810 at 1.1863. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 21:30 | NZD | Business NZ PSI Dec | 47.9 | 49.5 | | 07:00 | GBP | Claimant Count Change Dec | 0.7K | 10.3K | 0.3K | -25.1K | | 07:00 | GBP | ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Nov | 4.40% | 4.30% | 4.30% | | 07:00 | GBP | Average Earnings Excluding Bonus 3M/Y Nov | 5.60% | 5.50% | 5.20% | | 07:00 | GBP | Average Earnings Including Bonus 3M/Y Nov | 5.60% | 5.60% | 5.20% | | 10:00 | EUR | Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Jan | 10.3 | 15.1 | 15.7 | | 10:00 | EUR | Germany ZEW Current Situation Jan | -90.4 | -93 | -93.1 | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Jan | 18 | 16.9 | 17 | | 13:30 | CAD | CPI M/M Dec | -0.40% | -0.40% | 0.00% | | 13:30 | CAD | CPI Y/Y Dec | 1.80% | 1.90% | 1.90% | | 13:30 | CAD | CPI Median Y/Y Dec | 2.40% | 2.50% | 2.60% | | 13:30 | CAD | CPI Trimmed Y/Y Dec | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.70% | 2.60% | | 13:30 | CAD | CPI Common Y/Y Dec | 2.00% | 1.90% | 2.00% |
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