Yen Outperforms as Investors Turn Defensive, Sterlingâs Downward Spiral Persists
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 1-9-25 |
Yen Outperforms as Investors Turn Defensive, Sterling’s Downward Spiral Persists |
While Sterling continues to be the market's primary focus as it faces heavy losses, Japanese Yen is quietly staging a modest, but broad-based recovery. However, Yen’s rally appears driven more by position adjustments ahead of tomorrow’s US non-farm payrolls report, as risk sentiment has across markets has turned more cautious. Meanwhile, there little support for Yen from increasingly dovish expectations surrounding BoJ policy. The probability of a BoJ rate hike this month is waning. Although Japan's wage growth has shown strong improvement, economic uncertainty is casting doubt on immediate action. March is now starting to appear to be a more plausible timeline for further policy normalization. Former BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda noted in a recent research paper that while gradual rate hikes are anticipated, estimating the neutral interest rate remains challenging, making the path for monetary policy less clear. Separately, ex-BoJ board member Makoto Sakurai expressed skepticism about a January hike, attributing it to the uncertainties surrounding global economic trends and the incoming US Trump administration. Sakurai suggested a 70% likelihood of a March hike, indicating that BoJ might prefer to wait for more clarity.... |
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 157.99; (P) 158.27; (R1) 158.64; More... Intraday bias in USD/JPY is turned neutral first with current retreat. But further rally will remain in favor as long as 156.01 support holds. Break of 61.8% projection of 139.57 to 156.74 from 148.64 at 159.25 will extend the rally from 139.57 to retest 161.94 high. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, firm break of 156.01 support will indicate short term topping. Intraday bias will then be back on the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 153.98) instead. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:30 | JPY | Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y Nov | 3.00% | 2.70% | 2.60% | 2.20% | | 00:30 | AUD | Retail Sales M/M Nov | 0.80% | 1.10% | 0.60% | 0.50% | | 00:30 | AUD | Trade Balance (AUD) Nov | 7.08B | 5.62B | 5.95B | 5.67B | | 01:30 | CNY | CPI Y/Y Dec | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.20% | | 01:30 | CNY | PPI Y/Y Dec | -2.30% | -2.40% | -2.50% | | 07:00 | EUR | Germany Industrial Production M/M Nov | 1.50% | 0.50% | -1.00% | -0.40% | | 07:00 | EUR | Germany Trade Balance (EUR) Nov | 19.7B | 14.4B | 13.4B | | 09:00 | EUR | ECB Economic Bulletin | | 10:00 | EUR | Retail Sales M/M Nov | 0.10% | 0.30% | -0.50% | -0.30% |
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