Dovish ECB Rate Cut Pressures Euro, Gold Breaks to Fresh Record
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-17-24 |
Dovish ECB Rate Cut Pressures Euro, Gold Breaks to Fresh Record |
Euro tumbled broadly after ECB’s decision to cut its deposit rate by 25bps, as widely expected. During the post-meeting press conference, President Christine Lagarde maintained a cautious tone, stressing that ECB is "not pre-committing to a particular rate path." However, her overall stance leaned dovish, with a clear acknowledgment that "economic activity has been somewhat weaker than expected." Lagarde further highlighted that risks to growth remain "tilted to the downside." Lower confidence could slow the recovery in consumption and investment. Reduced demand for Eurozone exports could potentially adding pressure to economic growth. Additionally, inflation risks could shift to the downside if weak confidence and concerns over geopolitical events continue to curb spending and investment, or if the global economic environment deteriorates unexpectedly.... |
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0843; (P) 1.0872; (R1) 1.0891; More.... EUR/USD's fall from 1.1213 extends lower today and intraday bias remains on the downside. This decline is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.1274. Deeper fall would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.0447 to 1.1213 at 1.0740 next. Firm break there will target 1.0601 support next. On the upside, above 1.0900 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another decline. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
|---|
| 23:50 | JPY | Trade Balance (JPY) Sep | -0.19T | -0.49T | -0.60T | -0.47T | | 00:30 | AUD | NAB Business Confidence Q3 | -6 | -1 | -2 | | 00:30 | AUD | Employment Change Sep | 64.1K | 25.2K | 47.5K | 42.6K | | 00:30 | AUD | Unemployment Rate Sep | 4.10% | 4.20% | 4.20% | 4.10% | | 04:30 | JPY | Tertiary Industry Index M/M Aug | -1.10% | -0.20% | 1.40% | 2.20% | | 06:00 | CHF | Trade Balance (CHF) Sep | 4.95B | 4.85B | 4.58B | 4.74B | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Aug | 11.0B | 17.8B | 15.5B | 13.7B | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Y/Y Sep F | 1.70% | 1.80% | 1.80% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Sep F | 2.70% | 2.70% | 2.70% | | 12:15 | EUR | ECB Main Refinancing Rate | 3.40% | 3.40% | 3.65% | | 12:15 | EUR | ECB Deposit Facility | 3.25% | 3.25% | 3.50% | | 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 11) | 241K | 241K | 258K | 260K | | 12:30 | USD | Retail Sales M/M Sep | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.10% | | 12:30 | USD | Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Sep | 0.50% | 0.10% | 0.10% | | 12:30 | USD | Philadelphia Fed Survey Oct | 10.3 | 3 | 1.7 | | 12:45 | EUR | ECB Press Conference | | 13:15 | USD | Industrial Production M/M Sep | -0.10% | 0.80% | | 13:15 | USD | Capacity Utilization Sep | 77.80% | 78.00% | | 14:00 | USD | Business Inventories Aug | 0.30% | 0.40% | | 14:00 | USD | NAHB Housing Market Index Oct | 43 | 41 | | 14:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 80B | 82B | | 15:00 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 4.5B | 5.81M |
|
|
|
