Dollar Gains on Strong Job Data as Euro Rebounds on GDP
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-30-24 |
Dollar Gains on Strong Job Data as Euro Rebounds on GDP |
Dollar strengthened in the early session, buoyed by surprisingly strong ADP private sector job data that far outpaced expectations. This robust employment figure has bolstered optimism for Friday’s upcoming non-farm payrolls report, which many anticipate will confirm sustained strength in the US labor market. With job growth remaining solid, Fed may feel less pressure to ease its policy aggressively in the near term. However, Dollar’s gains are somewhat tempered by Q3 GDP data, which came in slightly below forecasts, indicating some moderation in overall growth momentum. Meanwhile, Euro also found support and rallied modestly after Eurozone GDP for Q3 exceeded expectations. Germany, in particular, delivered a surprise by reporting economic growth, allowing it to narrowly avoid a technical recession. This economic resilience lessens the immediate need for ECB to consider more aggressive policy easing in the coming meeting.... |
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0783; (P) 1.0804; (R1) 1.0840; More... EUR/USD recovered today but stays in range of 1.0760/0871. Intraday bias remains neutral and further decline is still expected. On the downside, break of 1.0760 will resume the fall from 1.1213 to 61.8% retracement of 1.0447 to 1.1213 at 1.0740. Firm break there will target 1.0601 support next. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 1.0871 will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 55 D EMA (now at 1.0946). | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 00:30 | AUD | Monthly CPI Y/Y Sep | 2.10% | 2.30% | 2.70% | | 00:30 | AUD | CPI Q/Q Q3 | 0.20% | 0.30% | 1.00% | | 00:30 | AUD | CPI Y/Y Q3 | 2.80% | 2.90% | 3.80% | | 00:30 | AUD | RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q/Q Q3 | 0.80% | 0.70% | 0.80% | 0.90% | | 00:30 | AUD | RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y Q3 | 3.50% | 3.50% | 3.90% | | 05:00 | JPY | Consumer Confidence Oct | 36.2 | 36.8 | 36.9 | | 06:30 | EUR | France Consumer Spending M/M Sep | 0.10% | 0.30% | 0.20% | | 06:30 | EUR | France GDP Q/Q Q3 P | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.20% | | 08:00 | CHF | KOF Economic Barometer Oct | 99.5 | 105 | 105.5 | 104.5 | | 08:55 | EUR | Germany Unemployment Change Oct | 27K | 18K | 17K | | 08:55 | EUR | Germany Unemployment Rate Oct | 6.10% | 6.10% | 6.00% | | 09:00 | CHF | UBS Economic Expectations Oct | -7.7 | -8.8 | | 09:00 | EUR | Italy GDP Q/Q Q3 P | 0.00% | 0.20% | 0.20% | | 09:00 | EUR | Germany GDP Q/Q Q3 P | 0.20% | -0.10% | -0.10% | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q3 P | 0.40% | 0.20% | 0.20% | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Economic Sentiment Oct | 95.6 | 96.4 | 96.2 | 96.3 | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Industrial Confidence Oct | -13 | -10.5 | -10.9 | -11 | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Services Sentiment Oct | 7.1 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 7.1 | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Consumer Confidence Oct F | -12.5 | -12.5 | -12.5 | | 12:15 | USD | ADP Employment Change Oct | 233K | 110K | 143K | 159K | | 12:30 | USD | GDP Annualized Q3 P | 2.80% | 3.00% | 3.00% | | 12:30 | USD | GDP Price Index Q3 P | 1.80% | 2.70% | 2.50% | | 13:00 | EUR | Germany CPI M/M Oct P | 0.20% | 0.00% | | 13:00 | EUR | Germany CPI Y/Y Oct P | 1.80% | 1.60% | | 14:00 | USD | Pending Home Sales M/M Sep | 1.90% | 0.60% | | 14:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 1.5M | 5.5M |
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Dollar Gains on Strong Job Data as Euro Rebounds on GDP
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 10-30-24 |
Dollar Gains on Strong Job Data as Euro Rebounds on GDP |
Dollar strengthened in the early session, buoyed by surprisingly strong ADP private sector job data that far outpaced expectations. This robust employment figure has bolstered optimism for Friday’s upcoming non-farm payrolls report, which many anticipate will confirm sustained strength in the US labor market. With job growth remaining solid, Fed may feel less pressure to ease its policy aggressively in the near term. However, Dollar’s gains are somewhat tempered by Q3 GDP data, which came in slightly below forecasts, indicating some moderation in overall growth momentum. Meanwhile, Euro also found support and rallied modestly after Eurozone GDP for Q3 exceeded expectations. Germany, in particular, delivered a surprise by reporting economic growth, allowing it to narrowly avoid a technical recession. This economic resilience lessens the immediate need for ECB to consider more aggressive policy easing in the coming meeting.... |
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0783; (P) 1.0804; (R1) 1.0840; More... EUR/USD recovered today but stays in range of 1.0760/0871. Intraday bias remains neutral and further decline is still expected. On the downside, break of 1.0760 will resume the fall from 1.1213 to 61.8% retracement of 1.0447 to 1.1213 at 1.0740. Firm break there will target 1.0601 support next. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 1.0871 will indicate short term bottoming, and turn bias back to the upside for 55 D EMA (now at 1.0946). | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
|---|
| 00:30 | AUD | Monthly CPI Y/Y Sep | 2.10% | 2.30% | 2.70% | | 00:30 | AUD | CPI Q/Q Q3 | 0.20% | 0.30% | 1.00% | | 00:30 | AUD | CPI Y/Y Q3 | 2.80% | 2.90% | 3.80% | | 00:30 | AUD | RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q/Q Q3 | 0.80% | 0.70% | 0.80% | 0.90% | | 00:30 | AUD | RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y Q3 | 3.50% | 3.50% | 3.90% | | 05:00 | JPY | Consumer Confidence Oct | 36.2 | 36.8 | 36.9 | | 06:30 | EUR | France Consumer Spending M/M Sep | 0.10% | 0.30% | 0.20% | | 06:30 | EUR | France GDP Q/Q Q3 P | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.20% | | 08:00 | CHF | KOF Economic Barometer Oct | 99.5 | 105 | 105.5 | 104.5 | | 08:55 | EUR | Germany Unemployment Change Oct | 27K | 18K | 17K | | 08:55 | EUR | Germany Unemployment Rate Oct | 6.10% | 6.10% | 6.00% | | 09:00 | CHF | UBS Economic Expectations Oct | -7.7 | -8.8 | | 09:00 | EUR | Italy GDP Q/Q Q3 P | 0.00% | 0.20% | 0.20% | | 09:00 | EUR | Germany GDP Q/Q Q3 P | 0.20% | -0.10% | -0.10% | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q3 P | 0.40% | 0.20% | 0.20% | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Economic Sentiment Oct | 95.6 | 96.4 | 96.2 | 96.3 | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Industrial Confidence Oct | -13 | -10.5 | -10.9 | -11 | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Services Sentiment Oct | 7.1 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 7.1 | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Consumer Confidence Oct F | -12.5 | -12.5 | -12.5 | | 12:15 | USD | ADP Employment Change Oct | 233K | 110K | 143K | 159K | | 12:30 | USD | GDP Annualized Q3 P | 2.80% | 3.00% | 3.00% | | 12:30 | USD | GDP Price Index Q3 P | 1.80% | 2.70% | 2.50% | | 13:00 | EUR | Germany CPI M/M Oct P | 0.20% | 0.00% | | 13:00 | EUR | Germany CPI Y/Y Oct P | 1.80% | 1.60% | | 14:00 | USD | Pending Home Sales M/M Sep | 1.90% | 0.60% | | 14:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 1.5M | 5.5M |
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