Yen Recovers as BoJ Holds Rates; Euro Strengthens Ahead of Inflation Data
| Action Insight Daily Report 10-31-24 |
Yen Recovers as BoJ Holds Rates; Euro Strengthens Ahead of Inflation Data |
Yen recovers broadly today after BoJ left interest rates unchanged, and largely maintained the economic projections unchanged too. The direction of monetary policy remains clear as the next move is a hike if the outlook is realized. Yet, BoJ dropped no clue on the timing. Data from Japan were mixed, with stronger industrial production and weak retail sales, they're not giving the markets any direction. Overall, Euro is now the strongest one for the week so far, supported by yesterday's Eurozone GDP data, which lessen the need for aggressive policy easing from ECB. Focuses will turn to October CPI flash today. An up tick in headline inflation is expected while core inflation would continue the down trend. Dollar and Swiss Franc are following as the next strongest. Focuses in the US would be on September PCE which would show slight decline in both headline and core inflation. But the main event for the week would be tomorrow's non-farm payroll which is the most important data for Fed's near term moves. Still, US presidential election stays as the biggest influence for the US economy and Fed for the medium term. On the other hand, Aussie continues to sit at the bottom despite today's slight recovery. Yen is the next worst, followed by Canadian. Kiwi and Sterling are positioning in the middle.... |
GBP/JPY Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 198.10; (P) 198.96; (R1) 199.70; More... A temporary top is formed at 199.79 in GBP/JPY with current retreat. Intraday bias is turned neutral for consolidations first. Further rally would remain in favor as long as 55 D EMA (now at 194.20) holds. Above 199.79 will resume the rebound from 180.00 to retest 208.09 high. However, sustained break of 55 D EMA will argue that the corrective rise has completed already, and turn near term outlook bearish for 180.00/183.70 support zone. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:50 | JPY | Industrial Production M/M Sep P | 1.40% | 0.80% | -3.30% | | 23:50 | JPY | Retail Trade Y/Y Sep | 0.50% | 2.30% | 2.80% | 3.10% | | 00:00 | NZD | ANZ Business Confidence Oct | 65.7 | 60.9 | | 00:30 | AUD | Retail Sales M/M Sep | 0.10% | 0.40% | 0.70% | | 00:30 | AUD | Private Sector Credit M/M Sep | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.50% | | 00:30 | AUD | Import Price Index Q/Q Q3 | -1.40% | -0.20% | 1.00% | | 00:30 | AUD | Building Permits M/M Sep | 4.40% | 2.20% | -6.10% | | 01:30 | CNY | NBS Manufacturing PMI Oct | 50.1 | 50.1 | 49.8 | | 01:30 | CNY | NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI Oct | 50.2 | 50.5 | 50 | | 02:48 | JPY | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% | | 05:00 | JPY | Housing Starts Y/Y Sep | -0.60% | -4.10% | -5.10% | | 07:00 | EUR | Germany Import Price Index M/M Sep | -0.40% | -0.40% | | 07:00 | EUR | Germany Retail Sales M/M Sep | -0.50% | 1.60% | | 09:00 | EUR | ECB Economic Bulletin | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Unemployment Rate Sep | 6.40% | 6.40% | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Y/Y Oct P | 1.90% | 1.70% | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Oct P | 2.60% | 2.70% | | 11:30 | USD | Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Oct | 53.40% | | 12:30 | CAD | GDP M/M Aug | 0.10% | 0.20% | | 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 25) | 231K | 227K | | 12:30 | USD | Personal Income M/M Sep | 0.40% | 0.20% | | 12:30 | USD | Personal Spending Sep | 0.40% | 0.20% | | 12:30 | USD | PCE Price Index M/M Sep | 0.20% | 0.10% | | 12:30 | USD | PCE Price Index Y/Y Sep | 2.10% | 2.20% | | 12:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index M/M Sep | 0.30% | 0.10% | | 12:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index Y/Y Sep | 2.60% | 2.70% | | 12:30 | USD | Employment Cost Index Q3 | 0.90% | 0.90% | | 13:45 | USD | Chicago PMI Oct | 48.2 | 46.6 | | 14:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 79B | 80B |
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