Dollar Falls on Weak NFP Job Growth, But Losses Remain Limited
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-1-24 |
Dollar Falls on Weak NFP Job Growth, But Losses Remain Limited |
Dollar saw broad-based weakness in early US session following a much weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll report. Headline job growth came in well below forecasts, though market reaction remains tempered, as the data is widely believed to be heavily skewed by recent hurricanes and strikes. With unemployment rate holding steady and wage growth surpassing expectations, the underlying labor market still appears resilient. While this report slightly adjusted market expectations, there remains a near 95% probability of a 25 bps rate cut by Fed next week. In terms of weekly currency performance so far, Euro remains firmly in the lead. Yen has climbed to second place, benefiting from a post-NFP decline in US Treasury yields. Swiss franc ranks third, though its performance was dampened by weaker-than-expected inflation data, solidifying the chance of another SNB rate cut in December. Aussie remains at the bottom of the chart, followed closely by the Loonie. Sterling, despite a sharp drop on the UK budget news, managed to regain some ground and now ranks as the third weakest. Dollar and Kiwi are positioned mid-range..... |
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0856; (P) 1.0872; (R1) 1.0900; More... EUR/USD's rebound from 1.0760 short term bottom continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside for 55 D EMA (now at 1.0945). Strong resistance should be seen there to limit upside. On the downside, below 1.0843 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0447 to 1.1213 at 1.0740 will extend the fall from 1.1213 to 1.0601 support next. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 21:45 | NZD | Building Permits M/M Sep | 2.60% | -5.30% | -5.20% | | 00:30 | AUD | PPI Q/Q Q3 | 0.90% | 0.70% | 1.00% | | 00:30 | AUD | PPI Y/Y Q3 | 3.90% | 4.80% | | 00:30 | JPY | Manufacturing PMI Oct F | 49.2 | 49 | 49 | | 01:45 | CNY | Caixin Manufacturing PMI Oct | 50.3 | 49.5 | 49.3 | | 07:30 | CHF | Real Retail Sales Y/Y Sep | 2.20% | 2.50% | 3.20% | 2.70% | | 07:30 | CHF | CPI M/M Oct | -0.10% | 0.00% | -0.30% | | 07:30 | CHF | CPI Y/Y Oct | 0.60% | 0.80% | 0.80% | | 08:30 | CHF | Manufacturing PMI Oct | 49.9 | 49.5 | 49.9 | | 09:30 | GBP | Manufacturing PMI Oct F | 49.9 | 50.3 | 50.3 | | 12:30 | USD | Nonfarm Payrolls Oct | 12K | 106K | 254K | 223K | | 12:30 | USD | Unemployment Rate Oct | 4.10% | 4.10% | 4.10% | | 12:30 | USD | Average Hourly Earnings M/M Oct | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.40% | | 13:30 | CAD | Manufacturing PMI Oct | 50.4 | | 13:45 | USD | Manufacturing PMI Oct F | 47.8 | 47.8 | | 14:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI Oct | 47.6 | 47.2 | | 14:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Oct | 48.3 | | 14:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing Employment Index Oct | 43.9 | | 14:00 | USD | Construction Spending M/M Sep | 0.00% | -0.10% |
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