Dollar Softens Slightly Post-CPI; Focus Turns to Aussie Employment Data
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-13-24 |
Dollar Softens Slightly Post-CPI; Focus Turns to Aussie Employment Data |
US stock futures have jumped in a relief rally following release of October US CPI data, which, while showing an uptick in headline inflation and steady core inflation, stayed within expectations. This in-line report eases fears of an inflation surprise that could disrupt Fed's gradual easing path. Market sentiment has therefore strengthened, with Fed fund futures still pricing a 70% likelihood of a 25bps rate cut at the December FOMC meeting, indicating that the Fed’s near term rate-cut path remains intact for now. Following the CPI release, Dollar eased across the board as risk appetite returned, although it maintains its lead as the week's top performer. Canadian Dollar follows as the second strongest, while New Zealand Dollar rounds out the strongest three. Meanwhile, Sterling is the week’s weakest performer, overshadowed by continued caution despite comments from BoE’s top hawk. Euro and Yen also softened. Australian Dollar and Swiss Franc occupy middle ground. Australia's employment data will be a major focus in the upcoming Asian session while RBA Governor Michele Bullock is scheduled to speak too. Technically, AUD/USD is so far still holding on to 61.8% retracement of 0.6269 to 0.6941 at 0.6526. But prior rejection by falling 55 D EMA is a near term bearish sign. Sustained break of 0.6526 will extend the fall from 0.6941 towards 0.6269/6348 support zone.... |
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0591; (P) 1.0627; (R1) 1.0659; More... Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral first with current recovery. But further decline is expected as long as 1.0760 support turned resistance holds. Break of 1.0592 temporary low will resume the fall from 1.1213 to 100% projection of 1.1213 to 1.0760 from 1.0936 at 1.0483. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:50 | JPY | PPI Y/Y Oct | 3.40% | 3.00% | 2.80% | 3.10% | | 00:30 | AUD | Wage Price Index Q/Q Q3 | 0.80% | 0.90% | 0.80% | | 13:30 | USD | CPI M/M Oct | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.20% | | 13:30 | USD | CPI Y/Y Oct | 2.60% | 2.60% | 2.40% | | 13:30 | USD | CPI Core M/M Oct | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.30% | | 13:30 | USD | CPI Core Y/Y Oct | 3.30% | 3.30% | 3.30% |
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