Euro and Sterling Under Fire after PMIs, Swiss Franc Reverses Gains
| Action Insight Daily Report 11-22-24 |
Euro and Sterling Under Fire after PMIs, Swiss Franc Reverses Gains |
European majors are experiencing significant selling pressure today, with Euro leading the declines. Euro sharply depreciated as traders increased their bets on an aggressive 50 bps rate cut by ECB in December, following dismal PMI data. Market expectations for such a cut have surged to 50%, a substantial rise from around 15% just a day earlier. The region's services sector has now entered contraction, aligning with the manufacturing sector's prolonged recession. This economic downturn is further exacerbated by escalating geopolitical risks, notably the escalation of the Ukraine war, and the looming threat of tariffs from US President-elect Donald Trump. These factors intensify the urgency for ECB to accelerate its monetary easing towards a neutral rate to support the faltering economy. Sterling is also under substantial strain, weighed down by a larger-than-expected contraction in UK retail sales and disappointing November PMI readings. S&P Global observed that business sentiment in the UK has been declining since the general elections earlier this year. The Labour government's Autumn Budget failed to boost confidence, with sentiment instead plunging sharply. This suggests that the worst may still be ahead for the UK economy, as consumer spending weakens and businesses express growing concern over economic policies.... |
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0439; (P) 1.0497; (R1) 1.0532; More... EUR/USD's decline accelerated to as low as 1.0330 so far and there is no sign of bottoming yet. Sustained trading below 1.0404 key fiboncci level will carry larger bearish implications. Next target will be 161.8% projection of 1.1213 to 1.0760 from 1.0936 at 1.0203. Nevertheless, strong rebound from current level, followed by break of 1.0609 resistance, will confirm short term bottoming. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 22:00 | AUD | Manufacturing PMI Nov P | 49.4 | 47.3 | | 22:00 | AUD | Services PMI Nov P | 49.6 | 51 | | 23:30 | JPY | National CPI Y/Y Oct | 2.30% | 2.50% | | 23:30 | JPY | National CPI Core Y/Y Oct | 2.30% | 2.20% | 2.40% | | 23:30 | JPY | National CPI Core-Core Y/Y Oct | 2.30% | 2.10% | | 00:30 | JPY | Manufacturing PMI Nov P | 49 | 49.5 | 49.2 | | 00:30 | JPY | Services PMI Nov P | 50.2 | 49.7 | | 07:00 | EUR | Germany GDP Q/Q Q3 F | 0.10% | 0.20% | 0.20% | | 07:00 | GBP | Retail Sales M/M Oct | -0.70% | -0.30% | 0.30% | 0.10% | | 08:15 | EUR | France Manufacturing PMI Nov P | 43.2 | 44.6 | 44.5 | | 08:15 | EUR | France Services PMI Nov P | 45.7 | 49 | 49.2 | | 08:30 | EUR | Germany Manufacturing PMI Nov P | 43.2 | 43.1 | 43 | | 08:30 | EUR | Germany Services PMI Nov P | 49.4 | 51.8 | 51.6 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Nov P | 45.2 | 46 | 46 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Services PMI Nov P | 49.2 | 51.6 | 51.6 | | 09:30 | GBP | Manufacturing PMI Nov P | 48.6 | 50.1 | 49.9 | | 09:30 | GBP | Services PMI Nov P | 50 | 52.3 | 52 | | 13:30 | CAD | Retail Sales M/M Sep | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.40% | | 13:30 | CAD | Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Sep | 0.90% | -0.50% | -0.70% | -0.80% | | 13:30 | CAD | New Housing Price Index M/M Oct | -0.40% | 0.10% | 0.00% | | 14:45 | USD | Manufacturing PMI Nov P | 48.5 | | 14:45 | USD | Services PMI Nov P | 55 | | 15:00 | USD | Michigan Consumer Sentiment Nov F | 73 | 73 |
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