Dollar Reverses Post-Election Gains as Markets Seek Clarity on Fed's Rate Path
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-7-24 |
Dollar Reverses Post-Election Gains as Markets Seek Clarity on Fed's Rate Path |
Dollar continued to weaken in early US session, erasing the strong gains it enjoyed following Donald Trump's election victory. The greenback has turned negative for the week against several major currencies, suggesting that the initial post-election optimism has waned. Investors are now shifting their attention to Fed's upcoming rate decision for guidance on Dollar's next move. However, the pressing issue of Fed's monetary policy path for next year—beyond today's expected 25bps cut and another anticipated in December—is unlikely to be resolved immediately. Market participants may have to wait until the FOMC releases new economic projections in December to gain a clearer understanding of the central bank's plans. Meanwhile, British Pound holds steady after BoE's widely anticipated 25bps rate cut to 4.75%. The accompanying statement indicates that BoE will proceed with a measured, gradual approach to policy easing moving forward. However, Governor Andrew Bailey noted during the press conference that the pace of rate cuts could accelerate if inflation continues to decline more rapidly than expected.... |
AUD/USD Mid-Day Report Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6508; (P) 0.6577; (R1) 0.6640; More... AUD/USD's break of 0.6644 resistance indicates short term bottoming at 0.6511, on bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD, after drawing support from 61.8% retracement of 0.6269 to 0.6941 at 0.6526. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 55 D EMA (now at 0.6682). Sustained break there will bring stronger rebound back 61.8% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.6511 at 0.6777. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:30 | JPY | Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y Sep | 2.80% | 3.00% | 2.80% | 2.80% | | 00:30 | AUD | Trade Balance (AUD) Sep | 4.61B | 5.28B | 5.64B | 5.28B | | 03:00 | CNY | Trade Balance (USD) Oct | 95.7B | 73.5B | 81.7B | | 07:00 | EUR | Germany Industrial Production M/M Sep | -2.50% | -1.00% | 2.90% | 2.60% | | 07:00 | EUR | Germany Trade Balance (EUR) Sep | 17.0B | 24.3B | 22.5B | | 08:00 | CHF | Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) Oct | 719B | 716B | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Sep | 0.50% | 0.40% | 0.20% | | 12:00 | GBP | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 4.75% | 4.75% | 5.00% | | 12:00 | GBP | MPC Official Bank Rate Votes | 0--8--1 | 0--8--1 | 0--1--8 | | 13:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 1) | 221K | 220K | 216K | 218K | | 13:30 | USD | Nonfarm Productivity Q3 P | 2.20% | 2.30% | 2.50% | | 13:30 | USD | Unit Labor Costs Q3 P | 1.90% | 1.10% | 0.40% | | 15:00 | USD | Wholesale Inventories Sep F | -0.10% | -0.10% | | 15:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 67B | 78B | | 19:00 | USD | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4.75% | 5.00% | | 19:30 | USD | FOMC Press Conference |
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