Dollar Steady ahead of FOMC, Sterling Weakens on GDP Data
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 12-13-23 |
Dollar Steady ahead of FOMC, Sterling Weakens on GDP Data |
The currency markets are currently in a state of anticipation, with Dollar trading within familiar range as investors await FOMC rate decision. The critical question facing the markets is whether Fed will signal the pace of rate cuts in its updated dot plot. In September, the median projection indicated the federal funds rate would remain at 5.125% by the end of 2024, implying no rate cuts from the current level. While revisions to this projection are expected, the exact pace and extent of potential rate cuts remain uncertain. Meanwhile, Sterling has weakened broadly following release of GDP data that showed deeper-than-anticipated contraction. This has raised concerns that the UK economy may already be in a recession. Additionally, the slowing wage growth combined with a less optimistic economic outlook could lead to a shift in stance among the more hawkish members of BoE's MPC. While BoE Governor Andrew Bailey is expected to push back against speculations on rate cut following tomorrow's decision, there are discussions suggesting BoE might cut rates sooner than previously anticipated due to subdued growth... |
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.74; (P) 145.47; (R1) 146.19; More... Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral, and outlook stays bearish with 147.14 support turned resistance intact. On the downside, break of 144.72 minor support will suggest that rebound from 141.59 has completed at 146.58. Intraday bias will then be back on the downside for retesting 141.59 low. However, decisive break of 147.14 will dampen the bearish view, and bring stronger rally back towards 149.56/151.89 resistance zone. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:50 | JPY | Tankan Large Manufacturing Index Q4 | 12 | 10 | 9 | | 23:50 | JPY | Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook Q4 | 8 | 9 | 10 | | 23:50 | JPY | Tankan Non - Manufacturing Index Q4 | 30 | 27 | 27 | | 23:50 | JPY | Tankan Non - Manufacturing Outlook Q4 | 24 | 25 | 21 | | 23:50 | JPY | Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q4 | 13.50% | 12.40% | 13.60% | | 07:00 | GBP | GDP M/M Oct | -0.30% | -0.10% | 0.20% | | 07:00 | GBP | Industrial Production M/M Oct | -0.80% | -0.10% | 0.00% | | 07:00 | GBP | Industrial Production Y/Y Oct | 0.40% | 1.10% | 1.50% | | 07:00 | GBP | Manufacturing Production M/M Oct | -1.10% | 0.00% | 0.10% | | 07:00 | GBP | Manufacturing Production Y/Y Oct | 0.80% | 1.90% | 3.00% | | 07:00 | GBP | Goods Trade Balance (GBP) Oct | -17.0B | -14.1B | -14.3B | | 08:00 | CHF | SECO Economic Forecasts | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Oct | -0.70% | -0.30% | -1.10% | -1.00% | | 13:30 | USD | PPI M/M Nov | 0.00% | 0.10% | -0.50% | -0.40% | | 13:30 | USD | PPI Y/Y Nov | 0.90% | 1.00% | 1.30% | 1.20% | | 13:30 | USD | PPI Core M/M Nov | 0.00% | 0.20% | 0.00% | | 13:30 | USD | PPI Core Y/Y Nov | 2.00% | 2.20% | 2.40% | | 15:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -1.9M | -4.6M | | 19:00 | USD | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 5.50% | 5.50% | | 19:30 | USD | FOMC Press Conference |
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