Falling Yields Drive Euro and Sterling Down
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 12-6-23 |
Falling Yields Drive Euro and Sterling Down |
Euro and Sterling are falling broadly in European session today, a trend largely driven by notable decrease in benchmark yields in Germany and the UK. German 10-year bund yield has reached its lowest point since June. Simultaneously, UK 10-year gilt yield has dipped below 4% mark for the first time since May These movements in bond markets reflect increasing expectations among investors for upcoming rate cuts by ECB and BoE. Current market pricings suggest the likelihood of four rate cuts from ECB and three from the BoE in 2024. This aggressive pricing-in of rate cuts underscores growing concerns about the economic outlook in Europe and while disinflation is making significant progress... |
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0768; (P) 1.0808; (R1) 1.0838; More... EUR/USD's fall from 1.1016 is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the downside. Sustained break of 55 D EMA (now at 1.0770) will pave the way to retest 1.0447 support. On the upside, above 1.0846 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 1.1016 resistance holds, in case of recovery. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 00:30 | AUD | GDP Q/Q Q3 | 0.20% | 0.40% | 0.40% | | 07:00 | EUR | Germany Factory Orders M/M Oct | -3.70% | 0.50% | 0.20% | 0.70% | | 09:30 | GBP | Construction PMI Nov | 45.5 | 47.1 | 45.6 | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Oct | 0.10% | 0.20% | -0.30% | -0.10% | | 13:15 | USD | ADP Employment Change Nov | 103K | 120K | 113K | 106K | | 13:30 | CAD | Labor Productivity Q/Q Q3 | -0.80% | 0.20% | -0.60% | | 13:30 | CAD | Trade Balance (CAD) Oct | 3.0B | 1.8B | 2.0B | | 13:30 | USD | Trade Balance (USD) Oct | -64.3B | -63.0B | -61.5B | -61.2B | | 13:30 | USD | Nonfarm Productivity Q3 | 5.20% | 4.70% | 4.70% | | 13:30 | USD | Unit Labor Costs Q3 | -1.20% | -0.80% | -0.80% | | 15:00 | CAD | BoC Rate Decision | 5.00% | 5.00% | | 15:00 | CAD | Ivey PMI Nov | 54.2 | 53.4 | | 15:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -1.3M | 1.6M |
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