Dollar Setback on Poor Retail Sales, Sterling Faces Recession Woes
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 2-15-24 |
Dollar Setback on Poor Retail Sales, Sterling Faces Recession Woes |
Dollar's pullback intensifies in early US session, prompted by unexpectedly poor retail sales data for January. This underwhelming performance is reigniting debates about the enduring strength of consumer spending, a critical factor in fueling inflation. Although a single data point does not dictate the broader economic narrative, it nonetheless re-introduces speculation about Fed's potential rate cut in May, despite the improbability of a move in March. Across the pond, Sterling suffered even greater losses, becoming today's most underperforming currency. The Pound has unwound most of its gains from earlier in the week, following the release of GDP figures that confirmed the UK's descent into recession. This, combined with CPI figures that came in below expectations, is likely to dial down the intensity of BoE's hawkish voices. Market participants are recalibrating their expectations, turning back to anticipating three rate cuts within the year.... |
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8842; (P) 0.8864; (R1) 0.8880; More.... USD/CHF's retreat from 0.8884 extends lower today and intraday bias remains neutral. Some more consolidative trading would be seen but downside should be contained by 0.8727 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, above 0.8884 will resume the rise from 0.8332 to 100% projection of 0.8332 to 0.8727 from 0.8550 at 0.8954. Firm break there will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 0.9189. However, sustained break of 0.8727 will dampen this bullish view, and turn bias back to the downside for 0.8550 support instead. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:50 | JPY | GDP Q4 Q/Q P | -0.10% | 0.30% | -0.70% | -0.80% | | 23:50 | JPY | GDP Deflator Y/Y Q4 P | 3.80% | 4.00% | 5.30% | | 00:00 | AUD | Consumer Inflation Expectations Feb | 4.50% | 4.50% | | 00:30 | AUD | Employment Change Jan | 0.5K | 20.7K | -65.1K | -62.7K | | 00:30 | AUD | Unemployment Rate Jan | 4.10% | 4.00% | 3.90% | | 04:30 | JPY | Industrial Production M/M Dec F | 1.40% | 1.80% | 1.80% | | 07:00 | GBP | GDP M/M Dec | -0.10% | -0.20% | 0.30% | 0.20% | | 07:00 | GBP | GDP Q/Q Q4 P | -0.30% | -0.10% | -0.10% | | 07:00 | GBP | Industrial Production M/M Dec | 0.60% | -0.10% | 0.30% | | 07:00 | GBP | Industrial Production Y/Y Dec | 0.60% | -0.40% | -0.10% | 0.10% | | 07:00 | GBP | Manufacturing Production M/M Dec | 0.80% | 0.00% | 0.40% | 0.80% | | 07:00 | GBP | Manufacturing Production Y/Y Dec | 2.30% | 0.60% | 1.30% | 1.90% | | 07:00 | GBP | Goods Trade Balance (GBP) Dec | -14.0B | -14.1B | -14.2B | -15.1B | | 07:30 | CHF | PPI M/M Jan | -0.50% | -0.20% | -0.60% | | 07:30 | CHF | PPI Y/Y Jan | -2.30% | -1.10% | | 08:00 | CHF | SECO Consumer Climate Q1 | -41 | -34 | -40 | | 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Dec | 13.0B | 15.7B | 14.8B | 15.1B | | 12:22 | GBP | NIESR GDP Estimate Jan | -0.10% | 0.00% | -0.30% | | 13:15 | CAD | Housing Starts Jan | 224K | 225K | 249K | | 13:30 | CAD | Manufacturing Sales M/M Dec | -0.70% | -0.50% | 1.20% | 1.50% | | 13:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 9) | 212K | 217K | 218K | 220K | | 13:30 | USD | Retail Sales M/M Jan | -0.80% | -0.20% | 0.60% | | 13:30 | USD | Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Jan | -0.60% | 0.10% | 0.40% | | 13:30 | USD | Import Price Index M/M Jan | 0.80% | -0.10% | 0.00% | | 13:30 | USD | Empire State Manufacturing Index Feb | -2.4 | -12.5 | -43.7 | | 13:30 | USD | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey Feb | 5.2 | -8.9 | -10.6 | | 14:15 | USD | Industrial Production M/M Jan | 0.30% | 0.10% | | 14:15 | USD | Capacity Utilization Jan | 78.80% | 78.60% | | 15:00 | USD | Business Inventories Dec | 0.30% | -0.10% | | 15:00 | USD | NAHB Housing Market Index Feb | 46 | 44 | | 15:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | -67B | -75B |
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