Sterling Reverses as Brexit Turns Back into a Mess after Legal Setback
Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-12-19

Sterling Reverses as Brexit Turns Back into a Mess after Legal Setback

Sterling reverses and dives sharply as Brexit turns into a mess again. The new assurances UK Prime Minister Theresa May got from EU provided some nervous hope earlier today. But legal advice from Attorney General Geoffrey Cox killed the chance of getting the Brexit deal through the meaningful vote today. Basically, the updated deal just reduces risks of being tied in the Irish backstop forever. But such risk is not eliminated.

Pound is now trading as the weakest one for today, despite strong January GDP data. Canadian Dollar follows as the second weakest. Dollar got not support from CPI inflation data, which slowed in February. The greenback is the third weakest. On the other hand, New Zealand Dollar is the weakest one, followed by Euro, and then Swiss Franc.

In other markets, FTSE is currently up 0.19%. CAC is down -0.14%. DAX is down -0.19%. German 10-year bund yield is up 0.002 at 0.063. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 1.79%. China Shanghai SSE rose 1.10%. Hong Kong HSI rose 1.46%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.65%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.003 to -0.032.

Just released, US headline CPI slowed to 1.5% yoy in February, down from 1.6% yoy and missed expectation of 1.6% yoy. Core CPI also slowed to 2.1% yoy, down from 2.2% yoy and missed expectation of 2.2%. yoy.

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GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3016; (P) 1.3094; (R1) 1.3227; More....

GBP/USD failed to break through 1.3350 resistance despite today's strong rebound. Intraday bias is turned neutral with subsequent steep retreat. On the upside, Break of 1.3350 will resume the rebound from 1.2391 low to 61.8% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2391 at 1.3618 next. On the downside, again, sustained break of trend line support will argue that rebound from 1.2391 has completed earlier than expected at 1.3350. Deeper fall would then be seen to 1.2773 support for confirmation.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:50 JPY BSI Large Manufacturing Q/Q Q1 -7.3 4.8 5.5
00:30 AUD NAB Business Conditions Feb 4 5 7
00:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Feb 2 3 4
00:30 AUD Home Loans M/M Jan -2.60% -2.00% -8.20%
09:30 GBP GDP M/M Jan 0.50% 0.20% -0.40%
09:30 GBP Index of Services 3M/3M Jan 0.50% 0.50% 0.40%
09:30 GBP Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Jan -13.1B -12.11B -12.10B
09:30 GBP Industrial Production M/M Jan 0.60% 0.20% -0.50%
09:30 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Jan -0.90% -1.30% -0.90%
09:30 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Jan 0.80% 0.20% -0.70%
09:30 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Jan -1.10% -1.90% -2.10%
09:30 GBP Construction Output M/M Jan 2.80% 0.80% -2.80%
12:30 USD CPI M/M Feb 0.20% 0.20% 0.00%
12:30 USD CPI Y/Y Feb 1.50% 1.60% 1.60%
12:30 USD CPI Core M/M Feb 0.10% 0.20% 0.20%
12:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Feb 2.10% 2.20% 2.20%
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