Euro Slips on Soft CPI, US 10 Year Yields Sink

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-1-25

Euro Slips on Soft CPI, US 10 Year Yields Sink

Global markets are trading with a mixed tone today as investors brace for the long-awaited reciprocal tariff announcement from the US tomorrow. Asian stocks staged a moderate recovery from Monday’s selloff, while European indexes are also slightly in black. However, US futures are coming under renewed pressure. Meanwhile, Gold continues to shine amid the unease, extending its record-breaking rally and coming just shy of the 3150 mark.

Currency markets remain cautious but active. Selling pressure has rotated toward Euro and Sterling, with the common currency slightly more pressured by today’s lower-than-expected Eurozone core CPI print. Sterling is also softening, along with Loonie.

On the other hand, Yen and Swiss Franc are regaining strength, both benefiting from renewed risk-off flows. Dollar is treading water, with a mixed performance. Aussie and Kiwi are holding their ground for now, underpinned by stronger-than-expected Chinese manufacturing PMI data.

The Washington Post reported that Trump administration is still weighing several options for its tariff rollout, including a sweeping 20% levy on most imports or a country-by-country “reciprocal” model. While no final decision has been made, the scope could significantly alter global supply chains. Markets are likely to remain defensive until more clarity emerges, especially on whether exceptions will be granted and how key trade partners like the EU, China, and Canada will respond......

Full Report Here

Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0783; (P) 1.0816; (R1) 1.0848; More...

EUR/USD dips slightly today but stays well above 1.0731 support. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.0857 resistance will indicate that correction from 1.0963 has completed already. Retest of 1.0953 should be seen first. Firm break there will resume the rally from 1.0176 towards 1.1274 key resistance. However, firm break of 38.2% retracement of 1.0358 to 1.0953 at 1.0726 holds will bring deeper correction to 55 D EMA (now at 1.0645).

Full Report Here

EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

Recommended Readings

Crypto’s Attempt to Stabilise

RBA Holds Rates as Expected, Seeks Confidence in an Uncertain World

GBP/USD Turns Sideways as 20-SMA Blocks Advances

DAX Declining in an Impulsive Structure, According to Elliott Wave Perspective

Brent Crude Oil Price Rises Above $71

Gold Extends Record as Tariff Uncertainties Prevail

Fundamental Analysis | Technical Analysis
In-depth Reports
alt
RBA Holds Rates as Expected, Seeks Confidence in an Uncertain World
alt
European Central Bank Easing to Slow as Eurozone Outlook Brightens
alt
Global FX: A Sudden and Decisive Change in Sentiment
 
Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Feb 2.40% 2.50% 2.50%
23:50 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturing Index Q1 12 12 14
23:50 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook Q1 12 9 13
23:50 JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index Q1 35 33 33
23:50 JPY Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook Q1 28 29 28
23:50 JPY Tankan Large All Industry Capex Q1 3.10% 11.30%
00:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Feb 0.20% 0.30% 0.30%
00:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI Mar F 48.4 48.3 48.3
01:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI Mar 51.2 50.5 50.8
03:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision 4.10% 4.10% 4.10%
04:30 AUD RBA Press Conference
06:30 CHF Real Retail Sales Y/Y Feb 1.60% 1.50% 1.30% 2.90%
07:30 CHF Manufacturing PMI Mar 48.9 50.5 49.6
07:50 EUR France Manufacturing PMI Mar F 48.5 48.9 48.9
07:55 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI Mar F 48.3 48.7 48.3
08:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Mar F 48.6 48.7 48.7
08:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI Mar 44.9 44.6 44.6
09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Feb 6.10% 6.20% 6.20%
09:00 EUR CPI Y/Y Mar P 2.20% 2.20% 2.30%
09:00 EUR CPI Core Y/Y Mar P 2.40% 2.50% 2.60%
13:30 CAD Manufacturing PMI Mar 47.8
13:45 USD Manufacturing PMI Mar F 49.8 49.8
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI Mar 49.9 50.3
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Mar 65 62.4
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Employment Mar 47.6
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index Mar 48.6
14:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Feb 0.20% -0.20%