Dollar Selloff Extends Into Weekâs End, Trade Talks With EU and JP Offset China Escalations
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-11-25 |
Dollar Selloff Extends Into Week’s End, Trade Talks With EU and JP Offset China Escalations |
Financial markets showed signs of stabilization since European session, despite another round of retaliatory tariff hikes from China. While the latest move saw China raise levies on US goods to 125% from 84%, the response was widely anticipated and thus well absorbed by investors. Both President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping have maintained uncompromising stances, so markets had largely priced in another step in the tit-for-tat trade war. The absence of any conciliatory tone keeps tensions high, but the predictability of the escalation appears to have dulled the market impact. Also, China's latest move may have reached a symbolic peak. In a strongly worded statement, China’s finance ministry noted that at current tariff levels, “there is no longer a market for US goods imported into China,” implying that further retaliation may be economically futile. “If the U.S. government continues to increase tariffs on China, Beijing will ignore,” it added. Some of the bearish sentiment from the US-China standoff is being offset by more constructive developments on other trade fronts. Negotiations between the US and both the European Union and Japan appear to be gaining traction. EU trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič is scheduled to visit Washington on April 14 to meet US officials and continue discussions on tariff matters. Meanwhile, Japan’s newly formed task force, led by Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa, is preparing for key meetings on April 17 with US Treasury and trade representatives.... |
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1016; (P) 1.1129; (R1) 1.1315; More... EUR/USD's rally is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current rise form 1.0176 should target 161.8% projection of 1.0358 to 1.0953 from 1.0731 at 1.1694. On the downside, below 1.1245 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained well above 1.0912 support to bring another rally. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 22:30 | NZD | Business NZ PMI Mar | 53.2 | 53.9 | 54.1 | | 23:50 | JPY | Money Supply M2+CD Y/Y Mar | 0.80% | 1.20% | 1.20% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany CPI M/M Mar F | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.30% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany CPI Y/Y Mar F | 2.20% | 2.20% | 2.20% | | 06:00 | GBP | GDP M/M Feb | 0.50% | 0.10% | -0.10% | 0% | | 06:00 | GBP | Industrial Production M/M Feb | 1.50% | 0.10% | -0.90% | -0.50% | | 06:00 | GBP | Industrial Production Y/Y Feb | 0.10% | -2.30% | -1.50% | -0.50% | | 06:00 | GBP | Manufacturing Production M/M Feb | 2.20% | 0.20% | -1.10% | -1% | | 06:00 | GBP | Manufacturing Production Y/Y Feb | 0.30% | -2.40% | -1.50% | -0.90% | | 06:00 | GBP | Index of Services 3M/3M Feb | 0.60% | 0.50% | 0.40% | | 06:00 | GBP | Goods Trade Balance (GBP) Feb | -20.8B | -17.9B | -17.8B | | 12:30 | USD | PPI M/M Mar | -0.40% | 0.20% | 0.00% | 0.10% | | 12:30 | USD | PPI Y/Y Mar | 2.70% | 3.30% | 3.20% | | 12:30 | USD | PPI Core M/M Mar | -0.10% | 0.30% | -0.10% | | 12:30 | USD | PPI Core Y/Y Mar | 3.30% | 3.60% | 3.40% | 3.50% | | 14:00 | USD | UoM Consumer Sentiment Apr P | 55 | 57 | | 14:00 | USD | UoM Inflation Expectations Apr P | 5.00% |
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