Dollar Rebound Stalls as US-China Trade Talks Hit a Wall
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-24-25 |
Dollar Rebound Stalls as US-China Trade Talks Hit a Wall |
The forex markets remain subdued today, with all major pairs and crosses trading inside yesterday's range. After a brief bounce, Dollar’s recovery appears to be losing momentum. While it’s too soon to confirm whether the rebound has fully run its course, fading trade optimism is clearly starting to weigh on sentiment, especially as the broader macro picture continues to be dominated by uncertainty surrounding US trade policy. One of the key sources of hesitation remains the unresolved state of US trade negotiations. Despite market hopes earlier in the week for progress, there has been no meaningful development between the US and its key trading partners regarding tariff reductions. More critically, the much-anticipated talks with China appear not to have even started at all—deflating sentiment that had briefly lifted risk assets and commodity currencies earlier in the week. China’s Ministry of Commerce poured cold water on any speculation of near-term breakthroughs, stating unequivocally that there are “absolutely no negotiations” currently underway with the US on trade. The Foreign Ministry further emphasized that reports of ongoing talks or agreements are “false news,” and reiterated that Washington must first cancel its unilateral measures for talks to begin. The firm stance from Beijing signals a hardening of positions, making the path toward de-escalation far less certain than previously hoped. |
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8215; (P) 0.8264; (R1) 0.8355; More…. USD/CHF's rebound from 0.8038 is still in progress and intraday bias stays mildly on the upside. However, strong resistance should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 to 0.8038 at 0.8482 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 0.8038 will resume larger down trend. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:50 | JPY | Corporate Service Price Index Y/Y Mar | 3.10% | 3% | 3% | 3.20% | | 08:00 | EUR | Germany IFO Business Climate Apr | 86.9 | 85.2 | 86.7 | | 08:00 | EUR | Germany IFO Current Assessment Apr | 86.4 | 85.5 | 85.7 | | 08:00 | EUR | Germany IFO Expectations Apr | 87.4 | 85 | 87.7 | | 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 18) | 222K | 222K | 215K | 216K | | 12:30 | USD | Durable Goods Orders Mar | 9.20% | 1.50% | 1.00% | | 12:30 | USD | Durable Goods Orders ex-Trans Mar | 0.00% | 0.20% | 0.70% | | 14:00 | USD | Existing Home Sales Mar | 4.14M | 4.26M | | 14:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 69B | 16B |
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