The forex markets are generally holding steady today, with all major pairs and crosses bounded within yesterday's range. While month-end lull is at play, caution is also dominating sentiment as traders prepare for a heavy barrage of economic data scheduled from Wednesday through Friday. Key reports include US GDP and non-farm payrolls, along with Eurozone GDP and CPI flash estimates. Also, in the upcoming Asian session, Australia’s Q1 inflation report will be a major highlight. Focus will be on whether the closely watched trimmed mean CPI falls back within the RBA’s 2-3% target range for the first time since 2021. If realized, this would solidify expectations for a 25bps rate cut in May, a view that has become the base case for three of Australia’s big four banks. Some speculation persists about the possibility of a larger 50bps cut by RBA, especially given mounting trade risks. But many analysts argue that such a move would risk sending an unnecessary panic signal to markets. Still, any deep downside surprise in tomorrow's inflation data could quickly shift those odds..... |