Dollar Remains Weak after Disappointing US ADP Data, Yen and Swiss Franc Rally
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-5-23 |
Dollar Remains Weak after Disappointing US ADP Data, Yen and Swiss Franc Rally |
Disappointing US private job data doesn't trigger significant fresh selling in Dollar, but it's still maintaining its position as the week's weakest performer so far. Countervailing forces from declining US and European benchmark treasury yields are keeping the greenback's losses against Euro and Sterling in check. However, Swiss Franc and Yen seem to be making headway in broad rallies. Australian Dollar is currently the day's weakest performer, as post-RBA selloff gains momentum. Meanwhile, New Zealand Dollar is holding onto its gains after a larger-than-expected RBNZ rate hike during the Asian session, although no clear follow-through buying has emerged. From a technical standpoint, AUD/JPY's rebound from 86.04 is likely complete at 90.15, following a rejection by the 55 day EMA. Deeper decline is now anticipated towards 86.04 and below, resuming the overall downtrend from 99.32. The key level to watch ahead is 61.8% projection of 99.32 to 87.00 from 93.02 at 85.40. Firm break below this level could trigger a more rapid decline to the 100% projection at 80.70, potentially within Q2. In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.28%. DAX is down -0.51%. CAC is down -0.25%. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.019 at 2.234. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei dropped -1.68%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0532 to 0.469. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.23%. Hong Kong and China were on holiday. |
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9031; (P) 0.9087; (R1) 0.9118; More... Intraday bias in USD/CHF stays on the downside for 38.2% projection of 1.0146 to 0.9058 from 0.9439 at 0.9023. Decisive break there will extend the down trend from 1.0146 to 61.8% projection at 0.8767.On the upside, above 0.9099 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and turn intraday bias neutral again. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 02:00 | NZD | RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | 5.25% | 5.00% | 4.75% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Factory Orders M/M Feb | 4.80% | 0.40% | 1.00% | 0.50% | | 06:45 | EUR | France Industrial Output M/M Feb | 1.20% | 0.60% | -1.90% | -1.40% | | 07:45 | EUR | Italy Services PMI Mar | 55.7 | 53 | 51.6 | | 07:50 | EUR | France Services PMI Mar F | 53.9 | 55.5 | 55.5 | | 07:55 | EUR | Germany Services PMI Mar F | 53.7 | 53.9 | 53.9 | | 08:00 | EUR | Eurozone Services PMI Mar F | 55 | 55.6 | 55.6 | | 08:30 | GBP | Services PMI Mar F | 52.9 | 52.8 | 52.8 | | 09:00 | EUR | Italy Retail Sales M/M Feb | -0.10% | 0.50% | 1.70% | | 12:15 | USD | ADP Employment Change Mar | 145K | 200K | 242K | 261K | | 12:30 | CAD | Trade Balance (CAD) Feb | 0.4B | 2.2B | 1.9B | 1.2B | | 12:30 | USD | Trade Balance (USD) Feb | -70.5B | -68.5B | -68.3B | -68.7B | | 13:45 | USD | Services PMI Mar F | 53.8 | 53.8 | | 14:00 | USD | ISM Services PMI Mar | 54.5 | 55.1 |
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