From Trade War to Bond Shock: Global Markets Face Multi-Front Crisis
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-9-25 |
From Trade War to Bond Shock: Global Markets Face Multi-Front Crisis |
The relentless selling pressure in global markets shows no sign of abating, with European stocks and US futures once again under fire today. China’s latest retaliatory move to hike tariffs on US goods from 34% to 84% has reignited investor fears, just as the US implemented its own increase to a staggering 104% on Chinese imports. The ongoing trade war escalation between the world’s two largest economies is now moving rapidly from trade tension to a global financial shock. China is clearly signaling it has no intention of backing down. Beyond higher tariffs, Beijing’s commerce ministry added multiple US entities to an export control list and labeled several more as “unreliable.” It also filed a pointed complaint with the WTO, accusing Washington’s “reckless move” of destabilizing global trade. An unusual element of this market meltdown is the rare simultaneous collapse of all major US assets: stocks, Dollar, and Treasuries. In particular, yields on the 10-year note have surged back above 4.4%, up from 3.9% just last week. This sharp move has sparked fears of forced liquidation, margin calls on leveraged positions, which could drastically tighten up liquidity in the markets. Market watchers have floated multiple theories as explanations for the sudden jump in yields. Some see it as a predictable consequence of the US push to reduce bilateral trade imbalances, which may curb or even reverse foreign demand for American debt. Besides, Treasuries could become a retaliatory tool in a geopolitical standoff. While each theory differs in detail, all point to an erosion of liquidity and confidence in a market once considered the bedrock of global finance...... |
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 145.46; (P) 146.79; (R1) 147.61; More... Intraday bias in USD/JPY is back on the downside with break of 144.54 support. Fall from 158.86 is resuming to 158.86 to 146.52 from 151.20 at 143.57. Break there will target 139.57 low. On the upside, break of 148.13 resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside in case of recovery. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 02:00 | NZD | RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | 3.50% | 3.50% | 3.75% | | 05:00 | JPY | Consumer Confidence Index Mar | 34.1 | 34.9 | 35 | | 06:00 | JPY | Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Mar P | 11.4% | 3.50% | | 14:00 | USD | Wholesale Inventories Feb F | 0.30% | 0.30% | | 14:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | 2.2M | 6.2M | | 18:00 | USD | FOMC Minutes |
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