Markets Tread Water as Traders Shrug Off US PPI and UK GDP Surprises
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 5-15-25 |
Markets Tread Water as Traders Shrug Off US PPI and UK GDP Surprises |
Global financial markets are trading in tight ranges today, with little conviction seen across major asset classes. U.S. futures are pointing to a mildly weaker open. Despite a surprise decline in US producer prices in April, suggesting a possible easing of inflation pressures, there was little follow-through in market reaction. Earlier today, stronger-than-expected UK Q1 GDP data also offered limited support to the Pound. Overall sentiment remains contained as traders await further clarity on the trade front. Much of the current hesitation in markets can be attributed to persisting trade uncertainty. The EU Foreign Affairs Council is holding a key meeting today in Brussels to discuss trade relations with the US and broader economic security. Ahead of the meeting, European trade ministers expressed dissatisfaction with the limited UK-US trade agreement announced last week, which retains a 10% tariff on British exports. EU officials signaled that such a deal would not suffice to deter retaliatory measures. European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic confirmed a recent conversation with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and noted that both sides have agreed to step up engagement. Additional meetings are anticipated in Brussels or during upcoming OECD sessions. However, the complexity of negotiations and diverging expectations between the EU and US continue to cast doubt on a swift resolution. Elsewhere, trade talks between the US and India also show signs of friction. US President Donald Trump claimed that India had offered a trade deal with “no tariffs” on American goods. However, India’s foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar quickly pushed back, saying that talks remain ongoing and nothing has been finalized. It's believed that India would demand strict reciprocity on tariffs, while it's unlikely to concede easily in politically sensitive sectors such as agriculture, where protectionist pressures remain high.... |
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1136; (P) 1.1201; (R1) 1.1238; More... Range trading continues in EUR/USD and intraday bias stays neutral. On the upside, break of 1.1292 resistance will argue that correction from 1.1572 has completed after defending 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1572 at 1.1039. Intraday bias will be back on the upside for retesting 1.1572. However, sustained break of 1.1039 will dampen this view and target 61.8% retracement at 1.0709 next. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 01:00 | AUD | Consumer Inflation Expectations May | 4.10% | 4.20% | | 01:30 | AUD | Employment Change Apr | 89K | 20.9K | 32.2K | 36.4K | | 01:30 | AUD | Unemployment Rate Apr | 4.10% | 4.10% | 4.10% | | 06:00 | JPY | Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Apr | 7.70% | 11.40% | | 06:00 | GBP | GDP Q/Q Q1 P | 0.70% | 0.60% | 0.10% | | 06:00 | GBP | GDP M/M Mar | 0.20% | 0.00% | 0.50% | | 06:00 | GBP | Industrial Production M/M Mar | -0.70% | -0.60% | 1.50% | | 06:00 | GBP | Industrial Production Y/Y Mar | -0.70% | -0.90% | 0.10% | 0.40% | | 06:00 | GBP | Manufacturing Production M/M Mar | -0.80% | -0.80% | 2.20% | | 06:00 | GBP | Manufacturing Production Y/Y Mar | -0.80% | -0.50% | 0.30% | 0.50% | | 06:00 | GBP | Goods Trade Balance (GBP) Mar | -19.9B | -19.7B | -20.8B | -21.0B | | 06:30 | CHF | Producer and Import Prices M/M Apr | 0.10% | 0.20% | 0.10% | | 06:30 | CHF | Producer and Import Prices Y/Y Apr | -0.50% | -0.10% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q1 P | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.40% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Employment Change Q/Q Q1 P | 0.30% | 0.10% | 0.10% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Mar | 2.60% | 1.70% | 1.10% | | 12:15 | CAD | Housing Starts Apr | 279K | 234K | 214K | | 12:30 | CAD | Manufacturing Sales M/M Mar | -1.40% | -1.90% | 0.20% | -0.20% | | 12:30 | CAD | Wholesale Sales M/M Mar | 0.20% | -0.30% | 0.30% | | 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (May 9) | 229K | 230K | 228K | 229K | | 12:30 | USD | Retail Sales M/M Apr | 0.10% | 0.10% | 1.50% | 1.70% | | 12:30 | USD | Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Apr | 0.10% | 0.30% | 0.50% | 0.80% | | 12:30 | USD | PPI M/M Apr | -0.50% | 0.20% | -0.40% | 0.00% | | 12:30 | USD | PPI Y/Y Apr | 2.40% | 2.50% | 2.70% | | 12:30 | USD | PPI Core M/M Apr | -0.40% | 0.30% | -0.10% | 0.40% | | 12:30 | USD | PPI Core Y/Y Apr | 3.10% | 3.10% | 3.30% | 4.00% | | 12:30 | USD | Empire State Manufacturing May | -9.2 | -7.1 | -8.1 | | 12:30 | USD | Philadelphia Fed Survey May | -4 | -8.5 | -26.4 | | 13:15 | USD | Industrial Production M/M Apr | 0.00% | 0.10% | -0.30% | | 13:15 | USD | Capacity Utilization Apr | 77.70% | 77.80% | 77.80% | | 14:00 | USD | Business Inventories Mar | 0.20% | 0.20% | | 14:00 | USD | NAHB Housing Market Index May | 41 | 40 | | 14:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 111B | 104B |
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