Trade Rhetoric Sours Sentiment Again as US-China Tensions Resurface
| Action Insight Mid-Day 5-30-25 |
Trade Rhetoric Sours Sentiment Again as US-China Tensions Resurface |
Market sentiment took another bearish turn today following renewed rhetoric from US President Donald Trump, who accused China of having "totally violated" its preliminary trade agreement with the U.S. The comments, delivered via social media, were echoed by Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in a CNBC interview, where he expressed concern over China's delayed compliance. Greer emphasized that while the US had fulfilled its commitments under the temporary trade deal, China was "slow rolling" its response—raising fears that tensions between the two economic powers may be re-escalating. These remarks followed comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent just a day earlier, who admitted that US-China trade talks were “a bit stalled,” though he hinted at possible high-level engagement in the coming weeks. However, the combined messaging from senior officials now points to growing frustration in Washington, increasing the risk of a renewed tariff cycle. That's something the markets are highly sensitive to, especially with ongoing legal uncertainty surrounding the court-blocked reciprocal tariffs and their pending appeal. On the macro front, the US April core PCE price index ticked down to 2.5% year-on-year, reaffirming that disinflation is progressing, albeit slowly. With inflation trending lower but global uncertainty mounting, Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady in the near term. Fed funds futures currently price in a 95% chance of a hold at the June FOMC meeting and a 73% chance of another hold in July. The soft inflation reading does little to shift the central bank’s cautious stance, especially as trade risks remain firmly in focus.... |
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8182; (P) 0.8265; (R1) 0.8312; More…. Range trading continues in USD/CHF and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, break of 0.8187 will resume the fall from 0.8475 to retest 0.8038 low. On the upside, above 0.8346 will bring stronger rise to 0.8475. Firm break there will extend the corrective pattern from 0.8038 with another rising leg. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 22:45 | NZD | Building Permits M/M Apr | -15.60% | 9.60% | 10.70% | | 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI Y/Y May | 3.40% | 3.50% | | 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y May | 3.60% | 3.50% | 3.40% | | 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI Core-Core Y/Y May | 2.10% | 2% | | 23:30 | JPY | Unemployment Rate Apr | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.50% | | 23:50 | JPY | Industrial Production M/M Apr P | -0.90% | -1.40% | 0.20% | | 23:50 | JPY | Retail Trade Y/Y Apr | 3.30% | 2.90% | 3.10% | | 01:30 | AUD | Retail Sales M/M Apr | -0.10% | 0.30% | 0.30% | | 01:30 | AUD | Private Sector Credit M/M Apr | 0.70% | 0.50% | 0.50% | | 01:30 | AUD | Building Permits M/M Apr | -5.70% | 3.10% | -8.80% | -7.10% | | 05:00 | JPY | Housing Starts Y/Y Apr | -26.60% | -18.30% | 39.10% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Retail Sales M/M Apr | -1.10% | 0.30% | -0.20% | | 07:00 | CHF | KOF Economic Barometer May | 98.5 | 98.3 | 97.1 | | 08:00 | EUR | Eurozone M3 Money Supply Y/Y Apr | 3.90% | 3.70% | 3.60% | | 12:00 | EUR | Germany CPI M/M May P | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.40% | | 12:00 | EUR | Germany CPI Y/Y May P | 2.10% | 2.10% | 2.10% | | 12:30 | CAD | GDP M/M Mar | 0.10% | 0.20% | -0.20% | | 12:30 | USD | Personal Income M/M Apr | 0.80% | 0.30% | 0.50% | | 12:30 | USD | Personal Spending M/M Apr | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.70% | | 12:30 | USD | PCE Price Index M/M Apr | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0% | | 12:30 | USD | PCE Price Index Y/Y Apr | 2.10% | 2.20% | 2.30% | | 12:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index M/M Apr | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0% | | 12:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index Y/Y Apr | 2.50% | 2.50% | 2.60% | | 12:30 | USD | Goods Trade Balance (USD) Apr P | -87.6B | -141.8B | -162.0B | -163.2B | | 12:30 | USD | Wholesale Inventories Apr P | 0% | 0.40% | 0.50% | | 13:45 | USD | Chicago PMI May | 45.1 | 44.6 | | 14:00 | USD | UoM Consumer Sentiment May F | 50.8 | 50.8 | | 14:00 | USD | UoM 1-year Inflation Expectations May F | 7.30% | 7.30% |
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