Euro Rallies on Inflation Surprise, US PCE Data Bolsters Stocks
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 5-31-24 |
Euro Rallies on Inflation Surprise, US PCE Data Bolsters Stocks |
Euro surges broadly today after Eurozone inflation data showed larger than expected re-acceleration in May. While this increase doesn't shift the consensus that ECB will proceed with a rate cut next week, it significantly dampens any remaining expectations for a subsequent cut in July. Market speculation now leans towards the possibility of only two ECB rate cuts this year, rather than the previously anticipated three. Amidst these developments, Euro's rally is overshadowed by stronger performances from New Zealand Dollar and Australian Dollar, driven by a robust rebound in risk markets following the release of US. PCE inflation data. The data revealed that both headline and core inflation annual rates remained stable, aligning with forecasts. However, it was the slightly lower-than-expected monthly increase in core PCE that ignited a positive response from the markets, prompting a jump in US futures and a corresponding decline in the 10-year yield... |
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0798; (P) 1.0822; (R1) 1.0855; More.... Focus is now on 1.0894 in EUR/USD with today's strong bounce. Firm break there will resume whole rally from 1.0601, and target 61.8% projection of 1.0601 to 1.0894 from 1.0788 at 1.0969. For now, risk will stay on the upside as long as 1.0788 support holds, in case of retreat. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI Y/Y May | 2.20% | 1.80% | | 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food Y/Y May | 1.90% | 1.90% | 1.60% | | 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI ex Food & Energy Y/Y May | 1.70% | 1.80% | | 23:30 | JPY | Unemployment Rate Apr | 2.60% | 2.60% | 2.60% | | 23:50 | JPY | Industrial Production M/M Apr P | -0.10% | 1.50% | 4.40% | | 23:50 | JPY | Retail Trade Y/Y Apr | 2.40% | 1.90% | 1.20% | 1.10% | | 01:30 | AUD | Private Sector Credit M/M Apr | 0.50% | 0.40% | 0.30% | 0.40% | | 01:30 | CNY | NBS Manufacturing PMI May | 49.5 | 50.5 | 50.4 | | 01:30 | CNY | NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI May | 51.1 | 51.5 | 51.2 | | 05:00 | JPY | Housing Starts Y/Y Apr | 13.90% | -0.20% | -12.80% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Import Price M/M Apr | 0.70% | 0.50% | 0.40% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Retail Sales M/M Apr | -1.20% | 0.10% | 1.80% | 2.60% | | 06:30 | CHF | Real Retail Sales Y/Y Apr | 2.70% | 0.20% | -0.10% | -0.20% | | 06:45 | EUR | France GDP Q/Q Q1 | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.20% | | 08:30 | GBP | Mortgage Approvals Apr | 61K | 62K | 61K | | 08:30 | GBP | M4 Money Supply M/M Apr | 0.10% | 0.40% | 0.70% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Y/Y May P | 2.60% | 2.50% | 2.40% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y May P | 2.90% | 2.70% | 2.70% | | 12:30 | CAD | GDP M/M Mar | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.20% | | 12:30 | USD | Personal Income M/M Apr | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.50% | | 12:30 | USD | Personal Spending Apr | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.80% | 0.70% | | 12:30 | USD | PCE Price Index M/M Apr | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.30% | | 12:30 | USD | PCE Price Index Y/Y Apr | 2.70% | 2.70% | 2.70% | | 12:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index M/M Apr | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.30% | | 12:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index Y/Y Apr | 2.80% | 2.80% | 2.80% | | 13:45 | USD | Chicago PMI May | 40 | 37.9 |
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