Pound and Dollar Lead FX on UK-US Trade Deal, BoE Cut Overshadowed
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 5-8-25 |
Pound and Dollar Lead FX on UK-US Trade Deal, BoE Cut Overshadowed |
Sterling and the US Dollar are leading gains among major currencies today, lifted by anticipation surrounding the imminent announcement of a comprehensive US-UK trade agreement. The Pound remained resilient after BoE's expected 25bps rate cut. The three-way split within the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee and the mixed implications of its economic projections have made it difficult for markets to form a decisive reaction. BoE’s updated economic projections included two alternative scenarios, one based on weaker global demand due to trade disruptions, the other on renewed inflation stickiness from second-round effects. But with global trade dynamics in flux, these projections are highly conditional and arguably academic at this stage. A trade deal with the US may relieve some economic pressure on Britain, but its benefit depends on how the US proceeds with other partners, especially the EU and China. For now, attention is squarely on the 1400 GMT press conference where US President Donald Trump is expected to formally unveil the UK trade deal. Trump described the agreement as “full and comprehensive,” calling it a first step in a broader realignment of US trade policy. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s office confirmed talks have progressed swiftly and promised an update later today.... |
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.81; (P) 143.40; (R1) 144.43; More... USD/JPY rebounded further today but stays below 145.90 resistance. Overall, rise from 139.87 could extend through 145.90. But near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 147.12 holds, in case of another bounce. On the downside, firm break of 141.96 will argue that rebound from 139.87 has completed as a corrective move. Retest of 139.87 should then be seen next in this case. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:01 | GBP | RICS Housing Price Balance Apr | -3% | -4% | 2% | | 23:50 | JPY | BoJ Minutes | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Industrial Production M/M Feb | 3.00% | 0.80% | -1.30% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Trade Balance (EUR) Mar | 21.1B | 18.8B | 17.7B | | 11:00 | GBP | BoE Interest Rate Decision | 4.25% | 4.25% | 4.50% | | 11:00 | GBP | MPC Official Bank Rate Votes | 2--5--2 | 0--9--0 | 0--1--8 | | 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (May 2) | 228K | 235K | 241K | | 12:30 | USD | Nonfarm Productivity Q1 P | -0.80% | -0.40% | 1.50% | | 12:30 | USD | Unit Labor Costs Q1 P | 5.70% | 5.30% | 2.20% | | 14:00 | USD | Wholesale Inventories Mar F | 0.50% | 0.50% | | 14:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 103B | 107B |
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