Markets Turn Cautious Again Ahead of US-China Talks in Switzerland

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 5-9-25

Markets Turn Cautious Again Ahead of US-China Talks in Switzerland

The forex markets are quiet today, with major pairs largely consolidating after yesterday's modest directional movement. Dollar and British Pound remain the strongest performers overall, bolstered earlier in the week by the announcement of the US-UK trade agreement. However, both currencies are now struggling to extend their momentum. Canadian Dollar continues to lag after today's mixed employment report. European equities are trading slightly higher, and US futures are also edging up, but the broader market mood is subdued.

Attention is now shifting to the upcoming meeting between US and Chinese trade representatives in Switzerland this weekend. Caution is in the air after President Trump suggested in a social media post that tariffs on Chinese goods could be cut from 145% to 80%—a comment that sparked tentative optimism. While some economists are hopeful for at least partial tariff relief, expectations remain low for any immediate breakthrough.

History tempers optimism. The last major US-China trade deal took two years of negotiations following the initial tariff escalation in 2018, and that process was marked by repeated false starts and reversals. As such, the meeting in Switzerland is widely viewed as a tentative first step rather than a venue for concrete outcomes. Any signals of goodwill or further dialogue would be welcome, but markets are unlikely to price in significant progress until more substance materializes....

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Top Movers | HeatMap | Pivot Points | Pivot Meters | Action Bias | Vol

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1181; (P) 1.1259; (R1) 1.1305; More...

Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains mildly on the downside for the moment. Corrective fall from 1.1572 is still in progress to 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1572 at 1.1039. But strong support should be seen there to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.1380 will suggest that the correction has completed, and bring retest of 1.1572.

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EURUSD | USDJPY | GBPUSD | USDCHF | AUDUSD | USDCAD

EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:30 JPY Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y Mar 2.10% 2.40% 2.70%
23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y Mar 2.10% 0.20% -0.50%
03:00 CNY Trade Balance (USD) Apr 96.2B 94.3B 102.6B
05:00 JPY Leading Economic Index Mar P 107.7 107.4 107.9
12:30 CAD Net Change in Employment Apr 7.4K 4.1K -32.6K
12:30 CAD Unemployment Rate Apr 6.90% 6.80% 6.70%