Dollar Drops on CPI Miss; Trade Optimism Offers Limited Support
| Action Insight Mid-Day 6-11-25 |
Dollar Drops on CPI Miss; Trade Optimism Offers Limited Support |
Dollar fell broadly following weaker-than-expected US inflation report for May, reinforcing the narrative that consumer prices have not yet felt the full brunt of tariff pressures. The data offered some relief that the feared pass-through from tariffs to end consumers hasn’t materialized, at least not yet. However, it wasn’t enough to shift expectations for the June and July Fed meetings, where markets still overwhelmingly anticipate the central bank to hold steady. What did shift slightly was the probability of a September rate cut. According to fed funds futures, the odds of a cut in Q3 have now climbed above 55%. Nonetheless, the Fed is unlikely to act preemptively without more confirmation. On trade, President Trump declared this week’s talks with China a success, albeit with no rollback of existing tariffs. While the 55% tariff rate remains in place, Trump noted that China has committed to supplying key items such as magnets and rare earths “up front,” with the US reciprocating on non-economic terms like student access..... |
AUD/USD Mid-Day Report Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6497; (P) 0.6515; (R1) 0.6540; More... Intraday bias in AUD/USD is mildly on the upside with breach of 0.6536 resistance. Rise from 0.5913 could be resuming for 61.8% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.5913 at 0.6548. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 0.6478 support will turn bias back to the downside for 55 D EMA (now at 0.6410) and possibly below. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:50 | JPY | PPI Y/Y May | 3.20% | 3.50% | 4.00% | 4.10% | | 12:30 | CAD | Building Permits M/M Apr | -6.60% | 0.30% | -4.10% | -5.30% | | 12:30 | USD | CPI M/M May | 0.10% | 0.20% | 0.20% | | 12:30 | USD | CPI Y/Y May | 2.40% | 2.50% | 2.30% | | 12:30 | USD | CPI Core M/M May | 0.10% | 0.30% | 0.20% | | 12:30 | USD | CPI Core Y/Y May | 2.80% | 2.90% | 2.80% | | 14:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -2.4M | -4.3M |
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