Euro Resumes Decline as French Bond Risk Premium Surges Amid Political Turmoil
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-14-24 |
Euro Resumes Decline as French Bond Risk Premium Surges Amid Political Turmoil |
Euro is once again capturing market attention today as this week's significant selloff resumes. The steep decline has been driven by rising political tensions in France, as the snap parliamentary election called by President Emmanuel Macron has heightened investor anxiety, particularly as left-wing parties coalesce against him. There is a growing concern among market participants that the far-right, led by Marine Le Pen's National Rally, could secure a victory and promote a high-spending agenda, exacerbating France's already substantial debt burden. This political uncertainty has triggered safe-haven flows towards German bonds, resulting in a drop in German benchmark yields while French yields have remained steady. Consequently, the spread between French and German borrowing costs is on course for its largest weekly increase since Eurozone debt crisis in 2011, and hit the highest level in four years. French stock market, represented by CAC 40, has also suffered, reaching its lowest level since January... |
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0709; (P) 1.0763; (R1) 1.0793; More.... Intraday bias in EUR/USD continues today and intraday bias stays on the downside for 1.0601 support. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 1.1138, as the third leg of the pattern from 1.1274, and target channel support at 1.0510. On the upside, above 1.0744 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again first. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
|---|
| 22:30 | NZD | Business NZ PMI May | 47.2 | 48.9 | 48.8 | | 03:23 | JPY | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | | 04:30 | JPY | Tertiary Industry Index M/M Apr | 1.90% | 0.40% | -2.40% | -2.30% | | 04:30 | JPY | Industrial Production M/M Apr F | -0.90% | -0.10% | -0.10% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Apr | 19.4B | 17.0B | 17.3B | 17.2B | | 12:30 | CAD | Manufacturing Sales M/M Apr | 1.10% | 1.30% | -2.10% | | 12:30 | CAD | Wholesale Sales M/M Apr | 2.40% | 2.50% | -1.10% | -1.30% | | 12:30 | USD | Import Price Index M/M May | -0.40% | 0.10% | 0.90% | | 14:00 | USD | Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Jun P | 73 | 69.1 |
|
|
|
