Geopolitics on Backburner as Investors Eye Trade Negotiations and BoJ Hold
| Action Insight Mid-Day 6-16-25 |
Geopolitics on Backburner as Investors Eye Trade Negotiations and BoJ Hold |
Global financial markets showed remarkable resilience on Monday despite a continuous escalation in Middle East tensions. Iranian missiles struck Israel’s Tel Aviv and Haifa overnight, prompting an immediate warning from Israel’s defence minister that Tehran would soon “pay the price.” Iran has reportedly rejected ceasefire negotiations while under Israeli attack, communicating its position through mediators in Qatar and Oman. Yet, despite the geopolitical flare-up, European bourses edged higher, following gains in Asia, and US futures suggest a positive open. Investor focus appears to be shifting from conflict zones back to trade negotiations. A report in Handelsblatt suggests EU negotiators are considering offering the US 10% tariff on all EU exports to prevent harsher measures targeting key sectors like autos, pharmaceuticals, and electronics. The proposal is not permanent and would come with strings attached. In return, Brussels is reportedly open to reducing tariffs on US vehicles and easing legal or technical barriers that have historically limited American car exports to Europe. Meanwhile, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is set to meet US President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the G7 summit. Tokyo has been seeking a breakthrough on tariff issues after several inconclusive rounds of negotiations. Monday's high-level meeting is seen as a potential turning point, although expectations remain cautious.... |
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1491; (P) 1.1552; (R1) 1.1616; More... Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen below 1.1630 temporary top. Further rise is expected as long as 1.1372 support holds. Break of 1.1572 will extend the rally from 1.0176. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.0176 to 1.1572 from 1.1064 at 1.1927. However, break of 1.1372 support will indicate short term topping, and turn bias to the downside for deeper pullback. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 22:30 | NZD | Business NZ PSI May | 44 | 48.5 | 48.1 | | 23:01 | GBP | Rightmove House Price Index M/M Jun | -0.30% | 0.60% | | 02:00 | CNY | Industrial Production Y/Y May | 5.80% | 6.00% | 6.10% | | 02:00 | CNY | Retail Sales Y/Y May | 6.40% | 5.00% | 5.10% | | 02:00 | CNY | Fixed Asset Investment YTD Y/Y May | 3.70% | 3.90% | 4.00% | | 06:30 | CHF | PPI M/M May | -0.50% | 0.10% | 0.10% | | 06:30 | CHF | PPI Y/Y May | -0.70% | -0.50% | | 07:00 | CHF | SECO Economic Forecasts | | 12:30 | USD | Empire State Manufacturing Jun | -6.7 | -9.2 |
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