Aussie Weakens as Market Eyes Upcoming RBA Rate Decision
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-17-24 |
Aussie Weakens as Market Eyes Upcoming RBA Rate Decision |
Australian Dollar declines broadly today, as markets brace for the upcoming RBA rate decision. With the cash rate expected to hold steady at 4.35%, speculation is rife about RBA's future monetary policy direction. Although the central bank maintains an open stance on rate adjustments, indicating that hikes are still possible, market consensus suggests that further increases are unlikely due to the subdued consumption climate. That's the base case until second-quarter CPI data presents significant upside surprises, which would make the next meeting in August live. Meanwhile, predictions for a rate cut are being deferred. While some economists anticipate a possible rate cut as early as the fourth quarter, others foresee this moving into the early next year. In broader currency market movements, New Zealand Dollar also showed weakness, but this trend extended to Yen and Swiss Franc, suggesting that these shifts are not tied to changes in risk sentiment. On a more positive note, Euro is on a recovery path, while Dollar, Canadian Dollar, and British Pound are appearing slightly stronger... |
AUD/USD Mid-Day Report Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6590; (P) 0.6617; (R1) 0.6643; More... No change in AUD/USD's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. Further rally is in favor with 0.6578 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 0.6361 to 0.6713 at 0.6579) intact. On the upside, firm break of 0.6713 will resume whole rise from 0.6361 to 0.6870 resistance next. However, sustained break of 0.6578 will dampen this bullish view, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 0.6495. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 22:30 | NZD | Business NZ PSI May | 43 | 47.1 | 46.6 | | 23:01 | GBP | Rightmove House Price Index M/M Jun | 0.00% | 0.80% | | 23:50 | JPY | Machinery Orders M/M Apr | -2.90% | -3.10% | 2.90% | | 02:00 | CNY | Industrial Production Y/Y May | 5.60% | 6.00% | 6.70% | | 02:00 | CNY | Retail Sales Y/Y May | 3.70% | 3.00% | 2.30% | | 02:00 | CNY | Fixed Asset Investment YTD Y/Y May | 4.00% | 4.20% | 4.20% | | 07:00 | CHF | SECO Economic Forecasts | | 12:15 | CAD | Housing Starts Y/Y May | 265K | 241K | 240K | 241K | | 12:30 | USD | Empire State Manufacturing Index Jun | -6 | -13 | -15.6 |
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