Middle East Diplomacy Calms Nerves; Sterling Rises, Loonie Lags
| Action Insight Mid-Day 6-20-25 |
Middle East Diplomacy Calms Nerves; Sterling Rises, Loonie Lags |
Markets are showing tentative optimism today as signs of potential diplomatic engagement in the Middle East ease investor concerns. European foreign ministers are meeting Iran’s Abbas Araghchi in Geneva—marking the first direct discussions with Western officials since Israel’s strike on Iran last week. This also reflects the highest level of European involvement in the crisis so far, feeding hopes that tensions could de-escalate through dialogue rather than force. Adding to the calm, the immediate threat of US military action appears to have diminished. President Donald Trump noted that he would defer his decision on whether to proceed “within the next two weeks,” citing a “substantial chance” of negotiations. That pause has helped stabilize global sentiment, at least temporarily, even as underlying geopolitical risks remain elevated. Currency markets are reacting accordingly. Sterling is outperforming, brushing off weak retail data as risk appetite improves. Aussie and Euro are also gaining modest ground. Meanwhile, Loonie is underperforming, trailing behind Yen and Franc, both of which are also softer as safe-haven flows ease. Dollar and Kiwi are positioning in the middle...... |
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3411; (P) 1.3440; (R1) 1.3498; More... GBP/USD's recovery from 1.3381 extends today, but upside is kept well below 1.3631 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Correction from 1.3631 short term top could still extend. Break of 1.3381 will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 1.2076 to 1.3631 at 1.3278. Nevertheless, firm break of 1.3631 will resume larger up trend. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:01 | GBP | GfK Consumer Confidence Jun | -18 | -20 | | 23:30 | JPY | National CPI Y/Y May | 3.50% | 3.60% | | 23:30 | JPY | National CPI Core Y/Y May | 3.70% | 3.60% | 3.50% | | 23:30 | JPY | National CPI Core-Core Y/Y May | 3.30% | 3.00% | | 23:50 | JPY | BoJ Meeting Minutes | | 01:15 | CNY | 1-Y Loan Prime Rate | 3.00% | 3.00% | 3.00% | | 04:30 | CNY | 5-Y Loan Prime Rate | 3.50% | 3.50% | 3.50% | | 06:00 | GBP | Retail Sales M/M May | -2.70% | -0.50% | 1.20% | 1.30% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany PPI M/M May | -0.20% | -0.20% | -0.60% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany PPI Y/Y May | -1.20% | -1.20% | -0.90% | | 06:00 | GBP | Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) May | 17.7B | 17.8B | 20.2B | 20.1B | | 12:30 | CAD | Retail Sales M/M Apr | 0.30% | 0.50% | 0.80% | | 12:30 | CAD | Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Apr | -0.30% | -0.20% | -0.70% | | 12:30 | CAD | Raw Material Price Index May | -0.40% | -0.80% | -3.00% | | 12:30 | CAD | Industrial Product Price M/M May | -0.50% | -0.20% | -0.80% | | 12:30 | CAD | New Housing Price Index M/M May | -0.20% | -0.20% | -0.40% | | 12:30 | USD | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Jun | -4 | -0.5 | -4 | | 14:00 | EUR | Eurozone Consumer Confidence Jun P | -15 | -15 |
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