Dollar Dips as Headline and Core PCE Inflation Slowed
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-30-23 |
Dollar Dips as Headline and Core PCE Inflation Slowed |
Dollar sees a significant dip in early US session after release of economic data showed a slower than expected headline PCE inflation and a slight decline in core PCE inflation. In contrast, Eurozone reported a tick up in core inflation for the same period. Stock futures rally on this news, while benchmark treasury yields dip Overall, the data, at least, doesn't lend support to more aggressive tightening by Fed. As the month draws to a close, both Yen and Greenback are poised to end as the worst performers. Despite a slight hiccup in response to today's disappointing data, Canadian Dollar takes the crown as the strongest performer for the month, with Aussie Dollar taking the runner-up position, despite widespread selloffs this week. European majors are showing a mixed performance, with no clear winner among them. In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.89%. DAX is up 1.25%. CAC is up 1.28%. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.014 at 2.408. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei dropped -0.14%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -0.09%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.62%. Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.04%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.0161 to 0.400. |
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0836; (P) 1.0888; (R1) 1.0917; More... EUR/USD dipped to 1.0834 earlier today but quickly recovered. It's still trying to defend 55 D EMA. Intraday bias stays neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.1011 will resume the rise from 1.0634 and target 1.1094 resistance. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend from 0.9534. However, firm break of 1.0834 will turn bias to the downside for 1.0634 support instead. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI Y/Y Jun | 3.10% | 3.80% | 3.20% | | 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food Y/Y Jun | 3.20% | 3.30% | 3.20% | | 23:30 | JPY | Tokyo CPI ex Food Energy Y/Y Jun | 3.80% | 4.40% | 3.90% | | 23:30 | JPY | Unemployment Rate May | 2.60% | 2.60% | 2.60% | | 23:50 | JPY | Industrial Production M/M May P | -1.60% | -1.00% | 0.70% | | 01:30 | CNY | Manufacturing PMI Jun | 49 | 49.5 | 48.8 | | 01:30 | CNY | Non-Manufacturing PMI Jun | 53.2 | 53.7 | 54.5 | | 01:30 | AUD | Private Sector Credit M/M May | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.60% | | 05:00 | JPY | Housing Starts Y/Y May | 3.50% | -2.20% | -11.90% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Import Price Index M/M May | -1.40% | -2.00% | -1.70% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Retail Sales M/M May | 0.40% | 0.20% | 0.80% | | 06:00 | GBP | GDP Q/Q Q1 F | 0.10% | 0.10% | 0.10% | | 06:00 | GBP | Current Account (GBP) Q1 | -10.8B | -7.7B | -2.5B | | 06:30 | CHF | Real Retail Sales Y/Y May | -1.10% | -2.50% | -3.70% | -4.00% | | 06:45 | EUR | France Consumer Spending M/M May | 0.50% | 0.70% | -1.00% | -0.80% | | 07:00 | CHF | KOF Economic Barometer Jun | 90.8 | 89.2 | 90.2 | 91.4 | | 07:55 | EUR | Germany Unemployment Change May | 28K | 15K | 9K | 13K | | 07:55 | EUR | Germany Unemployment Rate May | 5.70% | 5.60% | 5.60% | | 08:00 | EUR | Italy Unemployment May | 7.60% | 7.90% | 7.80% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Unemployment Rate May | 6.50% | 6.50% | 6.50% | | 09:00 | EUR | CPI Y/Y Jun P | 5.50% | 5.60% | 6.10% | | 09:00 | EUR | CPI Core Y/Y Jun P | 5.40% | 5.40% | 5.30% | | 12:30 | CAD | GDP M/M Apr | 0.00% | 0.20% | 0.00% | 0.10% | | 12:30 | USD | Personal Income M/M May | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.40% | 0.30% | | 12:30 | USD | Personal Spending May | 0.10% | 0.20% | 0.80% | | 12:30 | USD | PCE Price Index M/M May | 0.10% | 0.50% | 0.40% | | 12:30 | USD | PCE Price Index Y/Y May | 3.80% | 4.60% | 4.40% | 4.30% | | 12:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index M/M May | 0.30% | 0.40% | 0.40% | | 12:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index Y/Y May | 4.60% | 4.70% | 4.70% | | 13:45 | USD | Chicago PMI Jun | 44.5 | 40.4 | | 14:00 | USD | Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Jun F | 63.9 | 63.9 |
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