Dollar Down after Poor Jobless Claims, More Downside?
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 6-8-23 |
Dollar Down after Poor Jobless Claims, More Downside? |
The global forex markets are in a state of relative tranquillity today, as the dust begins to settle following two central bank surprises. With a light economic calendar on the horizon, trading activity is predicted to stay muted. Australian Dollar currently retains its pole position, closely pursued by its Canadian counterpart. However, with the release of Friday's job data, the latter has the potential to clinch the top spot for the week. New Zealand Dollar finds itself at the other end of the spectrum as the week's poorest performer, followed by Dollar and then Swiss Franc. Euro is mixed together with Yen. Technically, though, there is risk of a more violent move in Yen today and tomorrow, subject to development in treasury yields. US 10-year yield received notable support from 55 D EMA (now at 3.602) and recovered notably this week. The development keeps near term bullish bias intact. Break of 3.859 resistance will confirm resumption of whole rise from 3.253. Further break of trend line resistance will solidify upside momentum to 4.091 resistance next. If realized, Yen pairs could follow in tandem, in particular, with USD/JPY breaking through 140.90. In Asia, Nikkei closed down -0.86%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.04%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.55%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.22%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.436 at 0.0174. Overnight, DOW rose 0.27%. S&P 500 dropped -0.38%. NASDAQ dropped -1.29%. 10-year yield rose 0.085 to 3.784. |
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0665; (P) 1.0703; (R1) 1.0736; More... Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral for the moment. On the upside, break of 1.0778 resistance will resume the rebound from 1.0634 short term bottom to 55 D EMA (now at 1.0813). Sustained break there could pave the way back to retest 1.1094 high. On the downside, however, break of 1.0634 will resume the corrective decline from 1.1094. Deeper fall should then be seen to 1.0515 cluster support, 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1094 at 1.0498. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 22:45 | NZD | Manufacturing Sales Q1 | -2.80% | -0.40% | | 23:01 | GBP | RICS Housing Price Balance May | -30% | -37% | -39% | | 23:50 | JPY | GDP Q/Q Q1 F | 0.70% | 0.40% | 0.40% | | 23:50 | JPY | GDP Deflator Y/Y Q1 F | 2.00% | 2.00% | 2.00% | | 23:50 | JPY | Bank Lending Y/Y May | 3.40% | 3.10% | 3.20% | | 23:50 | JPY | Current Account (JPY) Apr | 1.90T | 1.38T | 1.01T | | 01:30 | AUD | Trade Balance (AUD) Apr | 11.16B | 14.0B | 15.27B | 14.82B | | 05:00 | JPY | Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook May | 55 | 54.1 | 54.6 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q1 F | -0.10% | 0.00% | 0.10% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Employment Change Q/Q Q1 F | 0.60% | 0.60% | 0.60% | | 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 2) | 261K | 235K | 232K | 233K | | 14:00 | USD | Wholesale Inventories Apr F | -0.20% | -0.20% | | 14:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 115B | 110B |
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