Markets Hold Breath as US-China Trade Talks Resume

Action Insight Mid-Day 6-9-25

Markets Hold Breath as US-China Trade Talks Resume

The cautious optimism in Asia failed to spill into European markets, as investors turned cautious ahead of today's US-China trade talks in London. While no one expects a sweeping resolution to the broader trade conflict, hopes are centered on incremental progress—particularly around rare earths.

Kevin Hassett, Director of the US National Economic Council, struck a pragmatic tone in his remarks today, emphasizing the goal of securing tangible commitments from China on resuming critical mineral exports. Hassett stated that the meeting's purpose was to verify China's seriousness, aiming for "a short meeting with a big, strong handshake." He added that a mutual agreement could result in immediate easing of US export controls, clearing the path for further negotiations.

Meanwhile, parallel trade efforts are underway between the US and Japan. Japan’s top trade envoy, Ryosei Akazawa, is reportedly planning his fourth US trip in as many weeks to engage in a sixth round of ministerial talks. While the discussions are said to be progressing, Akazawa conceded that the two sides have yet to reach a consensus. The urgency is growing ahead of the upcoming G7 summit in Canada, where a leaders’ meeting between the US and Japan may be on the agenda.....

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EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1359; (P) 1.1409; (R1) 1.1445; More...

No change in EUR/USD's outlook and intraday bias stays neutral. Price actions from 1.1572 are seen as a corrective pattern to rally from 1.0716. While rebound from 1.1064 might extend, strong resistance should emerge from 1.1572 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.1356 support will argue that the correction is already in the third leg, and target 1.1209 support for confirmation.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Manufacturing Sales Q1 5.10% 1.10% 3.00%
23:50 JPY Bank Lending Y/Y May 2.40% 2.40% 2.40% 2.30%
23:50 JPY Current Account (JPY) Apr 2.31T 2.59T 2.72T
23:50 JPY GDP Q/Q Q1 F 0.00% -0.20% -0.20%
23:50 JPY GDP Deflator Y/Y Q1 F 3.30% 3.30% 3.30%
01:30 CNY CPI Y/Y May -0.10% -0.20% -0.10%
01:30 CNY PPI Y/Y May -3.30% -3.00% -2.70%
03:00 CNY Trade Balance (USD) May 103.2B 101.1B 96.2B
05:00 JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current May 44.4 43.9 42.6
14:00 USD Wholesale Inventories M/M Apr F 0% 0%