Dollar Extends Decline as Markets Starting to Embrace Three Fed Cuts in 2025

Action Insight Mid-Day 7-1-25

Dollar Extends Decline as Markets Starting to Embrace Three Fed Cuts in 2025

Dollar's slide deepened today as markets leaned harder into expectations of multiple Fed rate cuts in 2025. The move comes even before this week’s key economic data—ISM manufacturing, ISM services, and non-farm payrolls—hits the wires. The greenback’s decline is broad-based, with risk currencies like the New Zealand Dollar and safe havens such as Yen and Swiss Franc outperforming at the same time.

Goldman Sachs now forecasts three rate cuts this year, reversing its earlier call for a single reduction. The shift stems from what it described as “smaller-than-expected” impacts from US tariffs and stronger-than-expected disinflation. Analysts noted that some gauges of household inflation expectations had previously raised concerns, but early signs suggest those pressures may not warrant delaying cuts. The call aligns with market pricing, which now shows a over 96 chance of a September cut and around 65% odds of three total moves.

Alongside monetary policy, fiscal worries are creeping into investor sentiment too. The Senate is expected to vote today on US President Donald Trump’s expansive “Big Beautiful Bill,” a package of tax cuts and spending boosts that would widen the US fiscal deficit by US 3.3 trillion. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed optimism on the bill’s passage, but questions linger about its long-term economic sustainability, particularly in the context of slower growth and aggressive tariffs......

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USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.7908; (P) 0.7951; (R1) 0.7974; More….

USD/CHF's decline is in progress and break of the near term falling channel suggests downside acceleration. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 61.8% projection of 0.9200 to 0.8038 from 0.8475 at 0.7757. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 0.7313 next. On the upside, above 0.7959 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first. But recovery should be limited by 0.8054 support turned resistance to bring another fall.

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EURJPY | EURGBP | EURCHF | EURAUD | GBPJPY

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Economic Calendar
GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
22:00 NZD NZIER Business Confidence Q2 22 19
22:45 NZD Building Permits M/M May 10.40% -15.60% -14.60%
23:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Jun 0.40% -0.10%
23:50 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturing Index Q2 13 10 12
23:50 JPY Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook Q2 12 9 12
23:50 JPY Tankan Non - Manufacturing Index Q2 34 34 35
23:50 JPY Tankan Non - Manufacturing Outlook Q2 27 29 28
23:50 JPY Tankan Large All Industry capex Q2 11.50% 3.10%
00:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI Jun F 50.1 50.4 50.4
01:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI Jun 50.4 49 48.3
05:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Index Jun 34.5 33.6 32.8
06:30 CHF Real Retail Sales Y/Y May 0.00% 0.80% 1.30%
07:30 CHF Manufacturing PMI Jun 49.6 44.2 42.1
07:50 EUR France Manufacturing PMI Jun F 48.1 47.8 47.8
07:55 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI Jun F 49 49 49
07:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Change May 11K 18K 34K
07:55 EUR Germany Unemployment Rate May 6.30% 6.40% 6.30%
08:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jun F 49.5 49.4 49.4
08:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI Jun F 47.7 47.7 47.7
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Jun P 2.00% 2.00% 1.90%
09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Jun P 2.30% 2.30% 2.30%
13:45 USD Manufacturing PMI Jun F 52 52
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI Jun 48.8 48.5
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Jun 70.2 69.4
14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Employment Index Jun 46.8
14:00 USD Construction Spending M/M May -0.10% -0.40%