Dollar Dips on Weak ADP While Yen Marches On, Market Awaits FOMC
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 7-31-24 |
Dollar Dips on Weak ADP While Yen Marches On, Market Awaits FOMC |
Dollar dipped as weaker-than-expected ADP job data hit the market entering US session. However, the movement has been limited with traders bracing for FOMC rate decision. Fed is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 5.25-5.50% today. The main focus is whether Fed will signal enough "confidence" to start cutting interest rates in September, a move that markets have fully priced in. Nonetheless, there is a risk that Chair Jerome Powell might sound non-committal, emphasizing that future decisions will remain data-dependent. Recent economic data, including Q2 GDP, suggest that economic activities are just normalizing without a sharp slowdown, suggesting that Fed is not in a hurry for policy loosening. Euro saw a slight bounce following stronger-than-expected headline and core inflation readings. The headline CPI has reaccelerated slightly, and core CPI did not slow for the third straight month. There remains one more inflation report before ECB meets on September 11-12, making it premature to conclude that ECB won't consider another rate cut. However, today's data complicate the decision... |
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 151.86; (P) 153.54; (R1) 154.43; More... USD/JPY's fall from 161.94 accelerates lower again to as low as 149.77 so far. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 148.66 fibonacci level, which is close to medium term channel support (now at 148.22). Strong support could be seen there to bring rebound. But break of 155.21 resistance is needed to confirm short term bottoming. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside in case of recovery. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 22:45 | NZD | Building Permits M/M Jun | -13.80% | -1.70% | -1.90% | | 23:50 | JPY | Industrial Production M/M Jun P | -3.60% | -4.20% | 3.60% | | 23:50 | JPY | Retail Trade Y/Y Jun | 3.70% | 3.30% | 2.80% | | 01:00 | NZD | ANZ Business Confidence Jul | 27.1 | 6.1 | | 01:30 | AUD | Monthly CPI Y/Y Jun | 3.80% | 3.80% | 4.00% | | 01:30 | AUD | CPI Q/Q Q2 | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% | | 01:30 | AUD | CPI Y/Y Q2 | 3.80% | 3.80% | 3.60% | | 01:30 | AUD | RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Q/Q Q2 | 0.80% | 0.90% | 1.00% | | 01:30 | AUD | RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y Q2 | 3.90% | 4.00% | 4.00% | | 01:30 | AUD | Retail Sales M/M Jun | 0.50% | 0.30% | 0.60% | | 01:30 | AUD | Private Sector Credit M/M Jun | 0.60% | 0.40% | | 01:30 | CNY | NBS Manufacturing PMI Jul | 49.4 | 49.3 | 49.5 | | 01:30 | CNY | NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI Jul | 50.2 | 50.2 | 50.5 | | 03:57 | JPY | BoJ Interest Rate Decision | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.10% | | 05:00 | JPY | Housing Starts Y/Y Jun | -6.70% | -2.00% | -5.30% | | 05:00 | JPY | Consumer Confidence Jul | 36.7 | 36.5 | 36.4 | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Import Price Index M/M Jun | 0.40% | 0.10% | 0.00% | | 07:55 | EUR | Germany Unemployment Change Jul | 18K | 16K | 19K | | 07:55 | EUR | Germany Unemployment Rate Jul | 6.00% | 6.00% | 6.00% | | 08:00 | CHF | UBS Economic Expectations Jul | 9.4 | 17.5 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Y/Y Jul P | 2.60% | 2.40% | 2.50% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Jul P | 2.90% | 2.80% | 2.90% | | 12:15 | USD | ADP Employment Change Jul | 122K | 166K | 150K | 155K | | 12:30 | USD | Employment Cost Index Q2 | 0.90% | 1.00% | 1.20% | | 12:30 | CAD | GDP M/M May | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.30% | | 13:45 | USD | Chicago PMI Jul | 44.1 | 47.4 | | 14:00 | USD | Pending Home Sales M/M Jun | 1.60% | -2.10% | | 14:30 | USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -1.6M | -3.7M | | 18:00 | USD | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 5.50% | 5.50% | | 18:30 | USD | FOMC Press Conference |
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