Tariff Pressures Lifts Dollar, RBA Cut and Guidance in Spotlight
| Action Insight Mid-Day 7-7-25 |
Tariff Pressures Lifts Dollar, RBA Cut and Guidance in Spotlight |
Dollar is outperforming across the board as markets enter into US session, which trade war risks continue to dominate market attention. With the July 9 tariff truce deadline fast approaching, The Trump administration shifted to a confrontational stance, offering “take-it-or-leave-it” tariff deals. According to Treasury Secretary Bessent, failure to reach agreements would result in tariffs snapping back to April 2 levels, some of which are steep enough to disrupt bilateral trade flows. Of particular concern is Trump’s new threat to slap a 10% tariff on any nation aligning itself with the “anti-American policies of BRICS.” While the US stopped short of naming targets, the implication is clear: countries like Australia and New Zealand, which maintain extensive trade ties with China and India, are now in the crosshairs. That warning rattled regional FX markets, sending AUD and NZD lower against Dollar. Diplomatic activity is intensifying. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reportedly had a “good exchange” with US President Donald Trump over the weekend, and a Commission spokesperson confirmed the EU remains committed to reaching a trade deal before the deadline. Japan has taken a more guarded approach, confirming that its negotiator held “in-depth exchanges” with US Commerce Secretary Lutnick. Tokyo reiterated its desire to reach a deal while protecting national interests. Meanwhile, Thailand submitted a new proposal offering to cut tariffs on many US goods to zero in a bid to avoid retaliatory measures, highlighting the growing pressure smaller economies face to align with US demands...... |
USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3575; (P) 1.3596; (R1) 1.3625; More... USD/CAD's breach of 1.3666 resistance suggests that fall from 1.3797 has completed at 1.3555. Corrective pattern from 1.3538 is in the third leg. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.3797 resistance and possibly above. On the downside, firm break of 1.3538/55 support zone will confirm resumption of whole decline from 1.4791. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:30 | JPY | Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y May | 1.00% | 2.40% | 2.30% | 2.00% | | 05:00 | JPY | Leading Economic Index May P | 105.3 | 105.3 | 104.2 | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Industrial Production M/M May | 1.20% | -0.60% | -1.40% | | 07:00 | CHF | Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) Jun | 713B | 704B | | 08:30 | EUR | Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Jul | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Retail Sales M/M May | -0.70% | -0.80% | 0.10% | 0.30% |
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