Dollar Rising With Treasury Yields, Aussie Selloff Gains Momentum
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-1-23 |
Dollar Rising With Treasury Yields, Aussie Selloff Gains Momentum |
Dollar rises broadly today, in the first trading day of August. The greenback is bolstered by mild risk aversion and rallying US yields. Meanwhile, traders are also probably starting to position ahead of the heavy weight data this week. However, the greenback is stuck below last week's high against Euro so far. Firm break there this resistance is needed to solidify upside momentum of Dollar. Australian Dollar's decline gained pace in a slightly delayed reaction to RBA's decision to hold interest rates earlier today. As market analysts dissect and digest the statement, some are beginning to predict a prolonged pause from the Australian central bank, leading to an acceleration in Aussie's sell-off. New Zealand Dollar and Canadian Dollar are the next weakest currencies for the moment, with the Japanese Yen also underperforming, except against the Dollar. Technically, while US 10-year yield reclaims 4% handle today, it's still kept below last week's high. More importantly, 4.091 resistance is the key level to overcome for the near term. TNX would just engage in sideway trading in a narrowing range until this resistance is broken decisively. However, firm break of 4.091 would set the stage for further rally to retest 4.333 high, possibly in rather quick manner, and give much support to extend Dollar's near term rise. Let's see if this week's data from the US would trigger the move. In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.32%. DAX is down -0.92%. CAC is down -0.92%. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.048 at 2.540. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.92%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -0.34%. China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.00%. Singapore Strait Times dropped -0.01%. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0090 to 0.594. |
GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2818; (P) 1.2845; (R1) 1.2863; More... GBP/USD's breach of 1.2761 temporary low indicates resumption of fall from 1.3141. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 1.1801 to 1.3141 at 1.2629, as a correction to rise from 1.1801. On the upside, above 1.2886 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for stronger rebound. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 22:45 | NZD | Building Permits M/M Jun | 3.50% | -2.20% | -2.30% | | 23:01 | GBP | BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Jun | 7.60% | 8.40% | | 23:30 | JPY | Unemployment Rate Jun | 2.50% | 2.60% | 2.60% | | 00:30 | JPY | Manufacturing PMI Jul F | 49.6 | 49.4 | 49.4 | | 01:30 | AUD | Building Permits M/M Jun | -7.70% | -7.90% | 20.60% | | 01:45 | CNY | Caixin Manufacturing PMI Jul | 49.2 | 50.3 | 50.5 | | 04:30 | AUD | RBA Interest Rate Decision | 4.10% | 4.35% | 4.10% | | 07:45 | EUR | Italy Manufacturing PMI Jul | 44.5 | 43.9 | 43.8 | | 07:50 | EUR | France Manufacturing PMI Jul F | 45.1 | 44.5 | 44.5 | | 07:55 | EUR | Germany Unemployment Change Jun | -4K | 15K | 28K | | 07:55 | EUR | Germany Unemployment Rate Jun | 5.60% | 5.70% | 5.70% | | 07:55 | EUR | Germany Manufacturing PMI Jul F | 38.8 | 38.8 | 38.8 | | 08:00 | EUR | Italy Unemployment Rate Jun | 7.40% | 7.70% | 7.60% | | 08:00 | EUR | Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jul F | 42.7 | 42.7 | 42.7 | | 08:30 | GBP | Manufacturing PMI Jul F | 45.3 | 45 | 45 | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Unemployment Rate Jun | 6.40% | 6.50% | 6.50% | 6.40% | | 13:30 | CAD | Manufacturing PMI Jul | 48.9 | 48.8 | | 13:45 | USD | Manufacturing PMI Jul F | 49 | 49 | | 14:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing PMI Jul | 46.5 | 46 | | 14:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing Employment Index Jul | 42.3 | 48.1 | | 14:00 | USD | ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid Jul | 41.8 | | 14:00 | USD | Construction Spending M/M Jun | 0.60% | 0.90% |
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