Euro Slips after CPI and ECB Minutes, Dollar Shrugs PCE
| Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-31-23 |
Euro Slips after CPI and ECB Minutes, Dollar Shrugs PCE |
Euro falls broadly today together with other European majors. Some might point to the expected slowdown in Eurozone core inflation in August as a factor. But indeed headline inflation was steady from the prior month, above expectations. Comments from ECB officials were also hawkish. Traders are probably just squaring positions ahead of tomorrow's US non-farm payroll, after failing to push Dollar lower. Talking about the greenback, there is no clear reaction to PCE inflation data which came in as expected. For now, Yen is the strongest one for the day, riding on the decline in benchmark yields in US, Germany and UK. Australian Dollar is the second strongest, followed by Canadian Dollar. Euro is the worst, followed by Swiss Franc and Sterling. Dollar is mixed in the middle. Technically, USD/CAD is holding above 1.3509 minor support, and further rise is in favor. The corrective pattern from 1.3976 should have completed at 1.3091 already. Firm break of 1.3653 resistance will target 1.3860 and then 1.3976. However, break of 1.3509 will dampen this view, and bring deeper pull back to 55 D EMA first. Given that US NFP and Canada GDP will be featured tomorrow, the pair would likely unveil the next move soon. In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.20%. DAX is up 0.73%. CAC is up 0.04%. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.0462 at 2.502. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.88%. Hong Kong HSI dropped -0.55%. China Shanghai SSE dropped -0.55%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.41%. Japan 10-year JGB yield dropped -0.0085 to 0.647. |
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0870; (P) 1.0908; (R1) 1.0960; More... Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral first as today's dip is contained by 1.0854 minor support so far. On the downside, break of 1.0854 will bring retest of 1.0764 low first. Break there will resume larger fall from 1.1274 to 1.0609/34 cluster support next. On the upside, however, break of 1.0944 resistance will argue that the corrective fall from 1.1274 has completed with three waves down to 1.0764. Further rally would then be seen to 1.1064 resistance for confirmation. | |
| GMT | Ccy | Events | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Revised |
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| 23:50 | JPY | Industrial Production M/M Jul P | -2.00% | -1.40% | 2.40% | | 23:50 | JPY | Retail Trade Y/Y Jul | 6.80% | 5.40% | 5.90% | | 01:00 | NZD | ANZ Business Confidence Aug | -3.7 | -13.1 | | 01:00 | CNY | NBS Manufacturing PMI Aug | 49.7 | 49.5 | 49.3 | | 01:00 | CNY | Non-Manufacturing PMI Aug | 51 | 51.1 | 51.5 | | 01:30 | AUD | Private Capital Expenditure Q2 | 2.80% | 1.10% | 2.40% | 3.70% | | 05:00 | JPY | Housing Starts Y/Y Jul | -6.70% | -0.80% | -4.80% | | 06:00 | EUR | Germany Retail Sales M/M Jul | -0.80% | 0.30% | -0.80% | -0.20% | | 06:45 | EUR | France Consumer Spending M/M Jul | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.90% | | 06:45 | EUR | France GDP Q/Q Q2 | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.50% | | 07:55 | EUR | Germany Unemployment Change Jul | 18K | 10K | -4K | | 07:55 | EUR | Germany Unemployment Rate Jul | 5.70% | 5.60% | 5.60% | | 08:00 | EUR | Italy Unemployment Jul | 7.60% | 7.40% | 7.40% | 7.50% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone Unemployment Rate Jul | 6.40% | 6.40% | 6.40% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Y/Y Aug P | 5.30% | 5.10% | 5.30% | | 09:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Aug P | 5.30% | 5.30% | 5.50% | | 11:30 | EUR | ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts | | 12:30 | CAD | Current Account (CAD) Q2 | -6.6B | -11.1B | -6.2B | | 12:30 | USD | Initial Jobless Claims (Aug 25) | 228K | 227K | 230K | 232K | | 12:30 | USD | Personal Income M/M Jul | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.30% | | 12:30 | USD | Personal Spending Jul | 0.80% | 0.70% | 0.50% | | 12:30 | USD | PCE Price Index M/M Jul | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.20% | | 12:30 | USD | PCE Price Index Y/Y Jul | 3.30% | 3.30% | 3.00% | | 12:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index M/M Jul | 0.20% | 0.20% | 0.20% | | 12:30 | USD | Core PCE Price Index Y/Y Jul | 4.20% | 4.20% | 4.10% | | 13:45 | USD | Chicago PMI Aug | 44.1 | 42.8 | | 14:30 | USD | Natural Gas Storage | 20B | 18B |
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